After a three-year hiatus, USA Rugby will renew its border rivalry with Canada. The two teams have not met since 2021, when USA delivered a crushing win in the second leg of their World Cup Qualifier series. While the USA has certainly had Canada’s number in the past decade, going 12-1-1 against their neighbors dating back to 2014, both teams come into the match in shaky form, leaving the door open for a Canadian uprising in Los Angeles.

The history of the rivalry dates back to 1977 with a Canadian victory on home soil, kicking off a nearly 40 year run of dominance. Indeed, rugby in Canada certainly had the highest peak when they famously made the World Cup quarterfinals in 1991. The age of professionalism, however, especially the advent of the MLR, has seen the simultaneous rise of USA and the decline of Canada on the international stage. The recent folding of the sole Canadian MLR side, the Toronto Arrows, has certainly not helped matters. While both sides might point to organization or financial troubles undermining on-field performance, the facts remain that USA will continue to enter every match as the favorite until further notice.

Upon crossing the whitewash, however, neither team will waste much thought on the history or statistics of the encounter– they instead will share a unifying focus on asserting dominance over their neighbors, battling for the right to claim themselves the peak of North American rugby. Like any good rivalry, the opponents will view each other through unflattering lenses: the Canadians will see themselves as the rugged and physical northmen, teaching a lesson in brutality to their pampered brothers, while conversely the Americans will believe themselves the superior athletes, a well-oiled machine eager to grind up the provincial also-rans.

The Canadian Team

Canada has named an almost identical side from their first round loss to Japan, with the exception of Andrew Coe sliding back to fullback and Takoda McMullin making the 15 in place of Cooper Coats. While Canada suffered a 55-28 defeat to Japan, Kingsley Jones clearly saw enough positives to keep his squad together, perhaps taking faith in a second half resurgence which saw them outscore their opponents 21-17.

Canada’s Strengths

The strength of Canada lies in their forwards, who can become very dangerous inside the 22m. With a strong maul and a devastating pick and go option, they’re capable of grinding down a team given the opportunity. Led by Lucas Rumball off the back of the scrum, their back row is also dangerous over the ball in defense, winning three jackal penalties against Japan.

Canada’s Weaknesses

The backs, however, were repeatedly bent and broken by Japan, giving their opponents front foot ball and forcing the entire team to play on the back foot in defense. Matched with Japan’s rapid rate of play, the first half score of 38-7 reflected a Canadian team always two steps behind. Flashes of brilliance in attack, notably Andrew Coe’s pace in broken play, are not a sustainable attack model, and Canada needs to find a way to more consistently create threats in open play.

The American Team

Scott Lawrence has named a USA side clearly built for speed, eyeing the Japanese blueprint for victory. In the forwards, Jason Damm, whose ball carrying sees him routinely join the MLR top try scorers, slots into second row. The back row features Cory Daniel at openside, who will bring the defensive motor to allow number eight Jamason Fa’anana-Schultz to focus on his carrying as well. In the backs, JP Smith and Luke Carty look to release the center pairing of Tommaso Boni and Tavite Lopeti, whose hard, intelligent lines should create trouble for the Canadian midfield. Conner Mooneyham gets his second start at the wing, looking to show off his finishing ability.

USA’s Strengths

While this will be Scott Lawrence’s fifth assembly with the team, new faces and new tactics have resulted in some disjointed and inconsistent performances, most notably in the summer loss to Romania. With a ten day training camp and a full test week leading up to this match, the Eagles should feel more aligned and confident. Key areas they’ll look to improve from the summer include lineout and maul defense, as well as consistency in open attack play.

The Matchup

The Eagles want to play fast and aggressive, balancing precise set plays with opportunistic attacks around the park. Canada would love to slow the game down and allow their forwards to frustrate the Americans at set piece. The contest will come down to three key areas:

Discipline

If the Eagles can stay on the right side of the referee, Canada has not shown consistent ability to manufacture scoring opportunities themselves. However, if American ill-discipline allows Peter Nelson to win a free 40m at a time kicking for touch, the Eagles could find themselves defending far more mauls than they care to.

Set Piece

The Eagles struggled mightily in the summer tests against both the Romanian and Scottish mauls, while failing to use their own as an attacking weapon. Conversely, Canada has made the maul their calling card, which could pose trouble for the USA if they’re given the opportunity to milk piggy-back penalties and yellow cards.

Pace of play

High rate of play decimated Canada in their match versus Japan, creating defensive gaps and overlaps all over the field. The gainline that Japan earned stymied Canadian efforts to slow the breakdown, which compounded the problem, leading to the lopsided scoreline. If the Americans can replicate that unrelenting onslaught, which they fully intend to do, the Canadians likely will again falter. On the other side, if the Canadians can slow the game to a crawl, where set piece and breakdown work rule the day, they will have the upper hand

The Prediction

Expect an eventual Eagles victory after a tight start. American fitness, especially off the bench, will eventually break a Canadian side without the same depth as their neighbors.

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The Bigger Picture

The match is not just about rivalry, it's about qualification for the Rugby World Cup. For Canada, a win against the USA would be a big boost to their hopes of making the World Cup. A loss would put them in a tough spot.

For the USA, the match is a chance to build momentum and prove they are a force to be reckoned with on the international stage. A win would be a major statement, while a loss would raise concerns about their ability to compete at the highest level.

This match is going to be a nail-biter, and it could have a big impact on the future of both teams. We'll be watching closely to see who comes out on top.