Vikings vs. Giants: Is Daniel Jones the Answer in New York?

The Minnesota Vikings look to improve on last season's 7-10 record as they travel east to face the New York Giants in Week 1 on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota lost first-round draft pick, quarterback J.J. McCarthy, to a knee injury in the preseason and he'll be out until 2025. The Giants, 6-11 last year, debut the No. 6 overall pick, dynamic wide receiver Malik Nabers in their season opener. The Vikings have won four of the past five matchups, but lost the most recent contest to the Giants, a 31-24 New York victory in January 2023's Wild Card Playoffs.

Kickoff from MetLife Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Vikings are 1.5-point road favorites in the latest Minnesota vs. New York odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 41. Before making any Vikings vs. Giants picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP!

Now, the model has set its sights on Vikings vs. Giants and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 1 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for spread, money line and over/under:

Sam Darnold, a Quarterback of Questions

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be the best player on the field on Sunday and a handful for the Giants to slow down. The Vikings star receiver just received a four-year, $140 million contract this offseason and looks to stay healthy in 2024 as he was unable to last season. Limited to only 10 games, Jefferson still managed to top the 1,000 yard mark (68-1074-5) despite poor quarterback play after Kirk Cousins was lost for the season in the middle of last year.

Now piloting the Vikings is Sam Darnold, the former No. 3 overall pick by the Jets in the 2018 draft. With no significant competition behind him due to J.J. McCarthy's season-ending injury, Darnold will look to revitalize his career with a big season in Minnesota. He has never played more than 13 games in a season, nor thrown for more than 20 touchdowns in a campaign. The Vikings will need him to overperform to exceed expectations in the tough NFC North Division. See which team to pick here.

Can Daniel Jones Recapture His Magic?

Saquon Barkley is gone, which means New York is starting over at running back with free agent signee Devin Singletary. Last year with Houston, Singletary rushed for 898 yards and four touchdowns and should be a solid stopgap for an organization that was seemingly surprised to lose its best offensive weapon. But quarterback Daniel Jones returns after missing most of 2023 due to injury and looks to bring back the magic he showcased two years ago in leading New York to a playoff berth.

In 2022, Jones played in 16 regular season games, throwing for 3,205 yards and 15 scores, with seven more touchdowns on the ground. Last season, the former No. 6 overall pick was healthy for six games, throwing two touchdowns with six interceptions. This is a big year for him as another poor showing will likely force the Giants to move on. Jones finally has a big time wide receiver in his arsenal: Malik Nabers from LSU was drafted as the No. 6 pick in April's draft and should be targed early and often in New York's offense. See which team to pick here.

A Tale of Two Quarterbacks

The model has simulated Minnesota vs. New York 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model's Vikings vs. Giants pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Giants vs. Vikings on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Giants vs. Vikings spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 181-129 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

Before the Giants’ 2024 season even starts, it must feel like déjà vu all over again for quarterback Daniel Jones.

Just one year after receiving a four-year deal worth $160 million, there are already murmurs about whether Jones is the long-term solution for the Giants at the position.

The team has a potential out based on how they structured his contract. According to Spotrac, if the Giants release Jones before the 2025 season, their dead cap would drop from $69.3 million to a more manageable $22.2 million.

Thus, Jones is back in the same position of trying to prove his doubters wrong.

While the market is considerably bearish on the Giants in 2024, they deserve a bit more respect than being Week 1 home underdogs to a team with one of the NFL’s lowest win-total projections this season.

Here’s my game preview, prediction and pick for Sunday’s Vikings vs. Giants matchup.

You can’t get too carried away with what you see in the NFL during August.

Minnesota’s 2024 first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy, received glowing reviews for his lone preseason appearance in the Vikings’s 24-23 win over Las Vegas.

The Michigan product completed 11-of-17 passes for 188 yards while tossing two touchdowns and an interception. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a meniscus tear in his right knee during the game and is out for the year.

The plan for McCarthy was to get some reps during preseason and serve as a backup to Sam Darnold. However, it’s entirely possible McCarthy would’ve gone on to win the starting job.

Darnold is entering his seventh NFL season as a former third overall pick, and he’s already on his fourth team. The Jets traded him to Carolina in 2021 because, after three underwhelming seasons in New York, they knew they’d never pick up his fifth-year option.

Darnold couldn’t cut it in his two seasons with Carolina and moved on to San Francisco, backing up Brock Purdy.

So, should we now suddenly view Darnold as a quarterback worthy of being a starter in the NFL?

Regardless of your opinion of Jones as a starting quarterback, he still led the Giants to a playoff berth in the 2022 season and even defeated the Vikings on the road in wild-card round.

Jones went toe-to-toe in that game with Kirk Cousins. Both quarterbacks played exceptionally well, finishing with a QBR value of at least 82.5.

The Giants simply had more of the ball and controlled the time of possession (33:36-26:24) with their running game. Jones led New York’s rushing attack with 78 yards on the ground.

When healthy, his dual-threat ability makes him a handful for opposing teams to defend. The key words here, of course, are when healthy. Jones suffered a neck injury last year that sidelined him for three games, and then tore his ACL, ending his season in Week 9.

The problem is there’s so much residual damage, or rather PTSD, from watching backup quarterback Tommy DeVito run around in the backfield, that it’s almost as if this is the same Giants team from a season ago.

This is a good buy-low opportunity in Week 1 with New York as a home dog.

We’ll have plenty of time during the season to dig into the X’s and O’s. But for now, this is simply a fade of Darnold.

According to the Action Network, Darnold is 22-33-1 (40%) against the spread (ATS) as an NFL starting quarterback. Moreover, when his teams are bet up after opening as a pick’em or favorite, he’s a woeful 0-4 ATS.

There’s also an angle in Week 1 that points to value on underdogs, as they’re 158-139-6 (53.2%) all-time ATS. The prevailing thought is that the start of a new season also brings renewed hope and optimism for the lesser teams.

When picking between the two quarterbacks, I’d much rather hitch my wagon to Jones than Darnold, who elicits more questions than answers at this stage in his career.