The San Antonio Spurs face the Dallas Mavericks in the season opener for both teams when they meet at American Airlines Center in Dallas in a Southwest Division matchup on Thursday. The Mavericks are coming off a season that saw them reach the NBA Finals, while San Antonio missed the postseason for the fifth consecutive year. The Spurs (22-60 in 2023-24), who were 3-13 against Southwest Division foes last season, were 10-31 in road games. The Mavericks (50-32), who were the fifth seed in the West and 11-5 within the division, were 25-16 on their home court.
Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Mavericks are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Spurs vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 227.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Spurs picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six seasons. The model ended the 2023-24 season on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning more than $2,800 in the process. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Spurs vs. Mavericks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Spurs vs. Mavericks:
Luka Doncic Leads the Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic powers the Dallas offense. In 70 games last season, all starts, he averaged 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, 9.2 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 37.5 minutes of action. He connected on 48.7% of his field goals, including 38.2% from 3-point range and 78.6% of his free throws. He has always played well against the Spurs. In 20 career games against San Antonio, Doncic is averaging 29.4 points, 9.5 assists and 8.8 rebounds in 35 minutes.
Klay Thompson Joins the Dallas Offense
Shooting guard Klay Thompson, an offseason trade acquisition, is another weapon on offense for Dallas. The four-time NBA champion played in 77 games last year for the Warriors, starting 63. He averaged 17.9 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game in 2023-24. It was the first time in seven years he did not average 20 or more points per game.
Victor Wembanyama Leads the Spurs Charge
San Antonio is led by the reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama. The second-year center averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals in 29.7 minutes of action last season. He connected on 46.5% of his field goals, including 32.5% from 3-point range and 79.6% at the foul line. He finished the regular season with at least one block in 39 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NBA.
Keldon Johnson Provides Scoring for the Spurs
Small forward Keldon Johnson is among San Antonio's top-returning scorers. The former first-round pick in 2019 played in 69 games last season, including 27 starts. He averaged 15.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 29.5 minutes. He connected on 45.4% of his field goals, including 34.6% from 3-point range and 79.2% of his free throws.
The model has simulated Spurs vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under on the point total and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Spurs, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that was on a 94-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks last season, and find out.
The Matchup
Victor Wembanyama’s sophomore campaign kicks off on Thursday night when the San Antonio Spurs face off against Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks.
Wembanyama posted 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game on just shy of 47% shooting from the floor in a successful rookie season in which he failed to get much help from the rest of the Spurs roster.
San Antonio made notable changes in the offseason that improved its roster, including the signing of veteran Chris Paul, who should help alleviate the guard play issues that haunted the Spurs last season.
Here’s a breakdown of Thursday night’s Texas showdown between the Spurs and Mavs with a prediction and pick.
Key Injuries
Dante Exum will miss the game for Dallas after undergoing wrist surgery a few weeks ago, while the Spurs will be without tough shot-maker Devin Vassell, who was objectively the second-best player for them last season.
Even without Vassell on the floor, San Antonio still has options to replace him, including rookie Stephon Castle, a 6-foot-7 combo guard who provides switchability on the defensive end of the floor, and playmaking and scoring on the other end.
Castle impressed in the preseason, posting 11 points, 3.6 assists and 2.4 rebounds in just over 20 minutes per game. Those PER 36s averages would rival plenty of veteran starters in the league.
Besides Castle and Paul, the Spurs will also roll out the Jeremy Sochan-Wembanyama combination, which will undoubtedly be one of the peskiest defensive frontcourt duos in the NBA this season.
Further, Harrison Barnes also provides a steady veteran presence in the small forward slot to add secondary scoring.
Depth is a bit of an issue for San Antonio, but coach Gregg Popovich won’t be shy in playing his starters a healthy amount of minutes this season, as there is an outside chance the Spurs could contend for a playoff spot in Wembanyama’s second season.
Meanwhile, Mavs coach Jason Kidd has stated he’d like to give his veterans more rest after Doncic averaged 37.5 minutes last season and Irving 35 minutes.
That could result in more backdoor covers for opponents this season with those two coming off the floor late in games.
The Spurs will be undervalued for at least a few games at the beginning of the season, and I’m still not entirely sold on the Mavericks being a true championship-caliber team.
This is a good spot to take San Antonio and the points.
The Pick
Pick: Spurs +7.5 (-110, BetMGM)
The Story
“The only thing that matters is the ending.”, a Stephen King character once declared. I think about that a lot, especially during basketball season. It’s a quote that I thinks speak to a deeper conflicted part of inner humanity.
Deep down, humans beings want to believe that every moment matters. Deep down, they know that every moment can’t. It’s a conflict that lies at the very heart of existence, and so, we find the echo of it in the varied parts and actions of our daily lives.
Art imitates life, and basketball is most certainly art.
And I suppose that’s how we have a way of ending so wound up about the state of things by season’s end. There’s no escaping it. Even apathy is an expression.
The reality is, of course, that every fan-base except for one will suffer disappointment regarding final outcomes. We can know this and still find ourselves surprised by our chagrin.
I’ve loved this sport for decades, and yet still I’m irked by basketball’s inherent and inanimate inability to exist in a state of perpetual fidelity regarding my team of choice.
Ah, but here comes the fresh slate of another season. Hope springs eternal. How can one resist the siren song of a conceptual change in fortunes?
How does one maintain an air of cynicism when met with a fresh-faced basketball wonder? I have to imagine that that sort of disappointment traces its way back to conundrum laid before us all. How many of these moments actually matter?
Is it only victory in the final game of the final portion of the season? Does that defeat the purpose of playing more games? Does that assign the greatest value to a championship victory in basketball’s final season? (Here’s hoping I don’t live long enough to see that)
Ah well, it’s a silly statement anyhow. At the very least, the ending never comes without beginning. Tonight we’ll get to see another one, as two of the NBA’s most dynamic forces kick off the start of another chalkboard story.
The ascending superstar in Victor Wembanyama versus an impossibly gifted Finals loser on the warpath in Luka Doncic, facing each other in match-up we didn’t get to see during this Summer’s Olympics. The frequently injured yet frequently lethal point guards in Kyrie Irving and Chris Paul, as stylistic opposites. Game One of another season of the storied I-35 rivalry.
There’s no telling how the game will go at this precise moment. No stats to inform us. No season-long progression, no ebbs and flows. Each season is a separate living entity, the ending no more enduring than that of any other game in a sprawl of infinitude.
Maybe it’s not the ending or the beginning that bear the weight. Maybe the story is the only thing that really matters. Time for the next chapter. Read up!
Wembanyama’s Impact
Ok, so it won’t be an actual light show per se, but I think we can all agree that there should be some kind of external firework display going off whenever these two connect for a big time yam. (I can think of multiple sports teams that get to fire a cannon, that’s all I’m saying) Either way, that’s definitely what’s going to be going on inside my head, and no one take that away from me. In all seriousness though, it’s less the high flying antics and more the extremely competent work in the half-court that I’m looking forward to. The Spurs haven’t had someone who could do that in quite some time, and there was no Victor to lob the ball to at that time anyway. Mostly I’m just looking forward to not having to avert my eyes anytime players are open on the fast-break, or the Spurs have to start a standstill possession. If reliability is sexy, then I am absolutely salivating right now.
The Spurs’ New Guard
It was a pretty compelling summer and preseason showing for Stephon Castle. In spite of limited showings/play time, Castle has already showcased an on-court awareness beyond his years, and his shooting appears to have progressed positively. Granted, it wasn’t the regular season, so everything should be taken with a grain of salt, but initial signs are encouraging, and historically, being praised for work ethic has been a good sign for Spurs rookies in the past, not to mention unqualified praise from Chris Paul regarding “grit” and willpower. Most of Castle’s flashes early will likely come on the defensive end, where his already sharp sense of defensive rotation and positioning will serve him well, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more out of the Spurs’ 2nd highest draft pick since the 90’s. Paul’s praise in particular rings loudly, as he doesn’t have a longstanding history of praising other guards, rookie players, or really anyone for that matter. It’s a quietly compelling start to Castle’s career, and he has a chance to make one heck of an impression if/when he finds himself opposite a talent like Luka Doncic.
For the Mavericks’ fans’ perspective, visit Mavs Moneyball.
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