The 2024 WNBA season has been one for the books, and it will end Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a winner-take-all at Barclays Center between the No. 1 seed New York Liberty and the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx. The Liberty could have clinched their first championship in franchise history Friday, but the Lynx held court. New York, the league's only remaining original franchise without a title, has lost all five previous times it has played for the championship. Minnesota can win a WNBA record fifth title with a win Sunday. Cheryl Reeve sports a 2-1 record in Finals Game 5s as head coach.
What should we expect in Game 5? ESPN breaks down the X factors and predicts which team will be crowned champion.
X Factors
Officiating
Charlie Creme: I don't think Friday's game was officiated unfairly as Sandy Brondello said in Friday's postgame news conference, but now both coaches have engaged in posturing about the officials. How Game 5 is called will be something to monitor. After Game 3, Minnesota's Reeve lamented that Napheesa Collier received more scrutiny from the officials than Breanna Stewart. In Game 4, Stewart was the superstar in foul trouble. Did Reeve's words have some influence? We'll never know, but now that Brondello has publicly aired her displeasure with the whistles after a game in which her team attempted 11 fewer free throws, it will be interesting to see what the foul and free throw numbers look like Sunday.
The Health and Effectiveness of Alanna Smith
Alexa Philippou: Gratifying. In a season that welcomed a lot of new fans and viewers due to the sensational rookie class, it's a treat that these two teams -- historic and special in their own ways -- are putting on such a high-level series. It's the latest reminder of how good the players and the coaching and the basketball have been in the WNBA, long before its sudden rise in cultural relevance.
Philippou: The health and effectiveness of Alanna Smith, who's pushing through a back issue that (along with foul trouble) kept her sidelined a good bit of Game 3. She finished with 12 points and 7 boards in 30 minutes in Game 4, a good sign for the Lynx, who also got solid minutes from Dorka Juhasz. Now coming off of a flight and quick turnaround following Friday's game, whether Smith can continue to battle against Jonquel Jones will be a huge factor for Minnesota.
Clutch Play
And as obvious as it sounds, this game might come down to which team makes fewer mistakes down the stretch and which steps up in the clutch. Late fouls, free throw efficiency and big-time 3-pointers have swung the outcome of three of the four Finals games. If Sunday comes down to the final minute or seconds, late-game execution will decide which team is crowned champion.
Will New York Finally Break Through or Will Minnesota's Dynasty Continue?
The Impact of New York's Star Players
Voepel: It feels like there is more pressure on the Liberty, for obvious reasons as they seek their first championship. How well they defend from the tip can set the tone in this game. How well Breanna Stewart plays offensively is the other big. As we saw in Game 3, she can totally take over. But as we saw in Game 4, she can also struggle with her shooting accuracy.
Voepel: In Game 4, you could tell Stewart and Napheesa Collier were feeling the grind of battling each other for a week-plus. Collier was 4-of-10 from the field and Stewart 5-of-21. But with everything on the line Sunday, it's likely we'll see strong performances from both. Getting a good shooting game from Ionescu, then, could be an absolute key for New York.
Still, it's not a coincidence that in New York's two Finals losses, Ionecsu shot 30.8% and 33.3% (vs. 55.6% and 41.7% in their wins) and Stewart shot sub-30% (vs. 38.9% and 45%).
Stewart and Ionescu are New York's leaders and need to make shots down the stretch in the most important game of their Liberty careers. But the Liberty also need to clean up some of their offensive process; New York's movement and decision-making on offense in stretches of this series are more the culprit than missing shots.
Creme: No. That might seem like too absolute of a response given New York almost did win Game 4 with its two biggest stars combining to shoot 10-for-36. Stewart and Ionescu also shot poorly in Game 1, an overtime loss for the Liberty. And that's just it: In New York's wins in this series, Stewart has scored 21 and 30 points. Ionescu made 10 of 21 shots combined in Games 2 and 3 and had the game-winning 3-pointer in Game 3. Sure, Jones and Fiebich were outstanding in Game 4, but we have seen that that isn't enough. New York needs its stars, at least one of them, to be just that to win the first title in franchise history.
The Impact of the Crowd
As Charlie and Alexa mentioned, the crowd at Barclays could be a sixth player in this game; the energy level will be amazing. But having picked the Lynx at the start of the series, I'll stay with that.
Who Will Reign Supreme?
Voepel: Minnesota. Reeve had the best possible answer Friday to what would decide Game 5: "It's two great teams. Who knows?" That's why this series has been so good. Even with the Liberty having the best regular-season record and being the No. 1 seed, the Lynx had the better of New York in the regular season and in the Commissioner's Cup final. It really has been evenly matched.
Creme: New York. But it'll be another tight one. Stewart will bounce back and will make a big play late. The Liberty earned home-court advantage by being the best team in the league all season. This is what it is for, and the Barclays Center crowd that will almost assuredly be more than 18,000 will provide just enough of a boost for New York.
Philippou: New York. This series has been full of surprises, but I'm going to stick with my original prediction. Courtney Williams kept saying before Game 3 the Lynx did not want to go back to Brooklyn because of how energizing the crowd is for the Liberty. And after the Aces celebrated a championship on the Barclays Center floor last year, the Liberty aren't going to let a visiting team do that again.
The Final Takeaway
The WNBA Finals have been a captivating series, and Game 5 is sure to be a nail-biter. Both teams have what it takes to win, and the outcome will likely depend on which team can make the fewer mistakes down the stretch. New York is looking to break the curse of never winning a championship, while Minnesota is looking to extend its dynasty. The stage is set for an epic showdown, and fans around the world will be glued to their screens to see who emerges victorious.
