The red-hot Minnesota Lynx head East to face the Connecticut Sun with major playoff implications on the line. Minnesota is surging, but the Sun have had their number in recent head-to-head matchups. Connecticut’s offense has been spurred by Marina Mabrey’s outstanding play off the bench, and my Lynx vs Sun predictions expect another strong outing from the sharpshooter at home.
Marina Mabrey's Impact
Marina Mabrey has made a major impact since she was dealt from the Chicago Sky to the Connecticut Sun at the trade deadline. Mabrey is playing fewer minutes, but her efficiency and points are up as she leads Connecticut in the scoring department. Mabrey is tied with DeWanna Bonner for team lead in points per game (15.3), but Mabrey is hot, and Bonner is slumping. Since the All-Star break, Bonner is averaging just 12.9 points on 38.1% shooting, and she’s scored fewer than 10 points in two of her last three. Mabrey has picked up the slack, and I expect her to do so again tonight.
Mabrey has come off the Sun’s bench in 11 straight and posted averages of 16.5 points and 2.8 triples while shooting 50% from the floor and 44.9% from beyond the arc. Mabrey scored at least 15 points in nine of those contests, and she’s reached that milestone in 22 of 38 games. The Minnesota Lynx have been the best perimeter defense in the WNBA (29.9% opponent three-point shooting), but have been middle-of-the-pack over their last 12 (33.8%).
Despite Mabrey’s strong play as of late, this points prop is available at Even money at bet365, and I’m all too happy to take full advantage of the mispriced line
Connecticut Sun's Home-Court Advantage
The Lynx are the hottest team in the WNBA after winning 13 of 14 and their last six in a row. Connecticut can snap that winning streak tonight. The Sun won both head-to-head matchups this season, and Connecticut is 10-2 straight up against Minnesota in 12 regular-season matchups since 2021. The Sun went 3-1 on their recent road trip and should be highly motivated after losing by 13 to the Aces in their last game. Connecticut’s rock-solid defense can give it the edge against the surging Lynx.
The Under is the Play
All signs point to the Under in this matchup between two strong defensive units. Over the last 12 games, no team has allowed fewer points than the Sun (74.1 per game). The Lynx have averaged the third-fewest points allowed in that span at a paltry 78. On the season, the Sun (93.4) and Lynx (94.9) own the slowest paces, and both teams are 16-22 to the Under. I expect Connecticut to limit Minnesota’s blossoming offense at home, and I’m confidently taking the Under as these teams jockey for playoff positioning atop the WNBA standings.
Final Thoughts
The Lynx have been unstoppable recently, but the Sun have a history of success against them. The Sun’s home-court advantage and strong defense make them a tough opponent, and I’m siding with Connecticut to get the win. While the Under has hit in four of the last six head-to-head matchups, these two teams are currently scoring at a fast pace. Look for this game to be a close, low-scoring affair. Remember to consult our WNBA injury reports for the latest updates before making your picks.
This game has all the makings of an exciting, competitive matchup, and I’m eager to see how it plays out.
