It is not a ‘finals-definer’ nor ‘ladder-shaper’ clash — not even close — but best believe the result of Richmond’s meeting with North Melbourne will have a ripple effect. While September implications will be unaffected by Saturday’s ‘Spoonbowl’, November’s national draft order will become much clearer. For when the Tigers and Kangaroos clash at Docklands, the No. 1 pick-holder will be all but confirmed.

In a bout between clubs that have won a combined four games from a possible 38 this season, it is North Melbourne, for a change, who will be favourite. Not only have the Roos improved immensely in a short space of time — genuinely threatening opponents with their handball-happy corridor chains — but their opposition this weekend historically struggles under the roof. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Richmond has gone 2-1-8 at Marvel Stadium, with the club’s former coach Damien Hardwick far from shy about his disdain for the venue during his tenure.

However, further than the match-up itself, the outcome of this contest will effectively determine who boasts the draft’s most premium choice. As of Friday, the league confirmed impending changes to the draft bidding system, with this year’s intake shaping as the time to strike before the landscape irrevocably changes.

The Significance of the No. 1 Draft Pick

It is a critical draft, too, for the reason that Tasmania’s induction into the competition looms in 2028 — and with it, numerous concessions. The three-year contracts early draftees will sign this year slates their off-contract year for 2027 — when it’s expected the asset-handy Devils will be able to pounce ahead of their inaugural campaign.

Simply, clubs can’t afford to languish at the bottom of the ladder once Tasmania enters. The Kangaroos are seemingly in the strongest position they have been in some time, suddenly exhibiting genuine signs that the end of this dreary rebuild tunnel is nearing. And as such, it doesn’t seem as though the Roos desperately need the No. 1 pick as much as they might have in years past — especially last year; with pundits continuing to lament the side’s Round 24 win over Gold Coast that gifted Harley Reid to West Coast.

North Melbourne will still finish at, or near, the ladder’s basement, but it can afford to pick at, say, fourth (taking into account potential Brisbane and Gold Coast bid-matching — more on that below), rather than first — and it wouldn’t be disastrous.

Teething Tigers: A Draft-Driven Strategy

On the other side of the ledger, in Adem Yze’s Punt Road coaching infancy, Richmond simply needs to stockpile premium young talent before the AFL-powered Devils impose themselves on the player movement and recruitment scene.

Don’t get it twisted, though; the Tigers have been proactive in preparing their draft assault in advance — and they will be heavily armed come night one. Last November, shrewd trading in the middle rounds armed the club with picks it can use this year to trade up with sides that need to absorb points.

Specifically, Richmond orchestrated trades with Fremantle and West Coast to add second and third-round selections they will wield later in the year. It means the Tigers, at time of writing, hold Picks 1, 21 (start of the second round), 36 (received from the Dockers), 39, 41 (Eagles), 54 (Dockers), 57, 63 (Collingwood) and 68 (Port Adelaide) — the most selections of any side.

Brisbane will be seeking capital to match an early bid for father-son prospect — and brother of second-year AFL midfielder Will — Levi Ashcroft, while Gold Coast has Academy rights to electric ball-winner Leo Lombard, who is also expected to draw an early rival bid. Possessing a bevy of later selections culminating in an AFL-most 5,811 draft points — and likely eyeing multiple moves up the order — the Tigers are the ideal trade partner for the likes of the Lions and Suns, or any other points-needy outfit.

Gold Coast boasts Picks 6, 11, and 20 in the first round and will no doubt be offering one or more of those to a side desiring a shift up the order. A loss this Saturday afternoon will leave Richmond a game and percentage behind the Roos in 18th on the ladder. From there, it would need, at a very minimum, two wins just to get back into 17th — and for a side that has managed two victories from 19 games thus far, it is near impossible to imagine.

Trade Winds: A Trio of Wantaway Stars

Further than the No. 1 pick discussion and potential trade-up plans, the Tigers have a gilt-edged opportunity to cash in draft-wise on a potential trio of wantaway senior players. Out-of-contract vice-captain Liam Baker is thought to be weighing up the Eagles and Dockers as destinations as he plots a move back to his home state.

Fellow Western Australian livewire Shai Bolton reportedly visited with Fremantle, while rebounder Daniel Rioli has continually been linked to a reunion with Richmond premiership coach Hardwick at Gold Coast. Fremantle presently holds Picks 7, 12, 16 and 25 — if Baker and Bolton’s fates are to end up in purple this year, Richmond’s list gurus Blair Hartley and Chris Toce will be plotting a raid of the Dockers’ first-round assets.

Further to trade discourse, Dustin Martin’s future remains shrouded in mystery. As an unrestricted free agent, if Martin were to sign with the Suns, compensation would be sent Richmond’s way — and the same goes for dual flag-winner Jack Graham, who is weighing up West Coast’s overtures.

The Draft Landscape: A Midfielder-Heavy Top Tier

While possessing the draft’s prized selection would be a terrific outcome in a torrid first season under Yze, a Harley Reid sort of standalone talent won’t be waiting at the top of the order. In what can be seen as both a positive and a negative, this year’s proceedings could unfold in one of the most evenly-scattered first rounds in recent memory — and it is midfielder-heavy at the top of that remarkably even order.

Soon-to-be Brisbane onballer Ashcroft tops the crop following the National Championships, with fellow Victorian ball-getters Finn O’Sullivan, Jagga Smith, Josh Smillie and Murphy Reid, South Australian Sid Draper and Queenslander Lombard also in that upper echelon mix.

Despite being locked into a top-two choice this November, triple Richmond premiership icon Jack Riewoldt highlighted the uncertainty of early draftees and reminded of the young “nucleus” already developing at Tigerland. “Who’s to say that the first draft pick will be better than the second draft pick, or better than the 10th draft pick?” he asked, speaking to foxfooty.com.au.

“They are going to be in a position where they’ve got a high draft pick, and the undeniable fact at the moment is that there (are) some players that are probably in their best 10 players that may not be at Richmond next year. They’re at a point where they need to decide what, not (just) what next year looks like for them, but what the next five years looks like.”

The Forward Line: A Void to Fill

The triple Coleman Medallist offered his thoughts on his former club’s forward line — which irrefutably has a void to fill after his retirement and the injuries that have downed Tom Lynch and Mykelti Lefau, among others.

“The ruck void was obvious on the weekend without having Toby (Nankervis) out there — he plays a pivotal part in what that young group of forwards with Tom Lynch being out injured at the moment looks like, and how much time they play forward. Maybe that (the forward line) is an area they do want to look at in this year’s draft, but I know they’ve got high hopes for Samson (Ryan), and Noah (Balta) has been moved out of necessity this year.

“I don’t know whether the best thing for him is forward or back, (but) what I do know, though, is that the best thing for him is consistency. That’ll be, hopefully, an area that they’re looking to shore up for Noah and make sure that he’s playing consistent football at one end of the ground in 2025.”

With the Tigers surely planning on taking more than one first-rounder into the draft’s opening night — and regardless of whether their first choice is at No. 1 or 2 — they won’t be short on premium options to bolster their burgeoning list.