The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time when it makes its interest rate announcement today at 9:45 a.m. ET, as it continues to loosen monetary policy. Economists widely predict that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which would bring its policy rate to 4.25 per cent. More cuts are expected to come this year.
When the Bank of Canada eases monetary policy and the economy slows, money managers usually brace for a weaker loonie. Yet, the Canadian dollar is fresh off its best monthly gain so far in 2024. And options traders expect it to rally even more despite the country’s gloomy economic outlook — the unemployment rate is at its highest in two years and consumers are strained, racking up credit card balances. Those conditions have the Bank of Canada poised on Wednesday to cut interest rates for a third-straight time this year as it moves to lower borrowing costs.
Last week, options traders were the most bullish on the loonie in 15 years, placing wagers that the currency will advance further versus the dollar over the coming month. Much of the optimism stems from the greenback’s lacklustre performance.
“The dollar’s broad-based decline is doing the bulk of the work in driving the loonie higher, but a number of idiosyncratic factors are also providing lift,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
A recent near-record wager against the loonie is prompting some investors to position for an even bigger rally if traders decide to cash out. Hedge funds and asset managers still hold a roughly US$8 billion short bet against the Canadian dollar in the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the week through Aug. 27, down from a peak of US$14 billion earlier in August.
“Bearish speculators are capitulating, suggesting that early-August’s historically extreme short position on the Canadian dollar could be largely unwound,” said Schamotta.
The Canadian dollar climbed 2.3 per cent last month versus the greenback, compared with an average negative return of 0.2 per cent for August over the past 25 years. Since hitting its 2024 trough on Aug. 5, the loonie rallied past its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages in under three weeks.
Despite the loonie’s impressive run up, the currency is kicking off this month lower by about 0.4 per cent. It is still down 2.3 per cent this year and is among the biggest losers of developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The under performance has prompted options traders to expect further gains in a catch-up move.
Last week, traders were paying more for put options that bet on a lower greenback versus the Canadian dollar than for calls that look for the pair to rise — an anomaly not seen since the global financial crisis. One-month risk reversals, which measure the difference between call and put options, dipped below zero at one point to levels last seen in October 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg — although they have since recovered to trade above parity.
Despite the bullish sentiment, the loonie could be the most vulnerable among Group-of-10 peers to a rebound in the dollar, according to Charu Chanana, head of FX strategy at Saxo Markets in Singapore, adding that yield differentials are not in favour of the loonie.
For now, the Canadian dollar is trading outside of 1.31 to 1.32, a range it has struggled to reach over the last two years. That means the loonie is not facing any near-term serious headwinds and could build off the recent momentum, rising another two per cent to three per cent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Bank of Canada's Rate Cut
The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time on Wednesday, as it continues to loosen monetary policy. Economists widely predict that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which would bring its policy rate to 4.25 per cent. More cuts are expected to come this year.
Economic Outlook
The Canadian economy is facing a number of challenges, including high inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowdown in global growth. The unemployment rate is at its highest in two years, and consumers are strained, racking up credit card balances. These factors have led the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish stance on monetary policy.
Loonie's Resilience
Despite the gloomy economic outlook, the Canadian dollar has been surprisingly resilient. The loonie is fresh off its best monthly gain so far in 2024, and options traders are betting on an even bigger rally in the coming months. This bullish sentiment is driven by a number of factors, including the greenback’s lacklustre performance and the unwinding of bearish bets against the loonie.
Uncertainty Remains
While the Canadian dollar has been strong in recent months, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about the future. The Bank of Canada’s rate cuts are expected to continue, and the global economic outlook remains uncertain. These factors could put pressure on the loonie in the months ahead.
Loonie's Future
The Canadian dollar's future remains uncertain. While it has been resilient in recent months, there are a number of factors that could put pressure on the currency in the coming months. However, the current bullish sentiment among options traders suggests that the loonie could continue to rally in the short term.
Conclusion: A Loonie to Watch
The Canadian dollar has been a surprising performer in recent months, defying expectations of a weaker currency. Options traders are betting on an even bigger rally, despite the gloomy economic outlook. While there is still a great deal of uncertainty about the future, the loonie is a currency to watch in the coming months.
