The door is ajar for North Queensland to make a play for the NRL top four but to bash it down they must fix defensive lapses to beat Brisbane in Townsville on Saturday night.
The Cowboys, on 28 points, are just two points behind fourth-placed Cronulla after winning four of their last six games.
They showed defensive grit in several of those outings, most notably the 16-6 away win over Penrith.
The defensive frailties that were exposed earlier in the season reared their head again in the 48-30 win over Wests Tigers last week at Leichhardt Oval where the hosts scored three of their six tries after Justin Olam had been sent off.
No side in the NRL era has won the title from outside the top four and the Cowboys, who have a bye to come, are aware they cannot let down their guard against the Broncos who have been heavily criticised this week for their poor form.
"We win our games off the back of our defence and if we can get our line speed and tackles right the rest of our game just flows," co-captain Tom Dearden said.
"Defence is so important at this time of year and in particular heading into finals so that is where our focus is going to be."
Fullback Scott Drinkwater has been in electric form in attack and mostly solid defensively but he noted a slip in the side's intensity against the Tigers.
"I think our attitude changed when they went down to 12 men. Up until then we were going pretty solid," Drinkwater said.
"Once Justin went off our defence fell away. The main takeaways are about attitude and knowing what can happen if (the opposition) goes down to 12 men if you are not ready to go contact-wise."
The Cowboys have not beaten the Broncos since 2022 and Drinkwater said their 14th position on the ladder was no cause for complacency.
"They will be fast and physical," he said.
"They have been criticised by a lot of people and they will have a point to prove."
A Touch of Emotion in the Queensland Derby
Round 23 of the 2024 NRL Season continues on Saturday night at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville when the North Queensland Cowboys host the Brisbane Broncos in the original and the best Queensland Derby. The Cowboys are pushing hard towards a top four berth while the Broncos are just about done in terms of the 2024 finals race. Adam Pages offers his best bets for the game!
The Cowboys: More Than Just a Game
In a game where the Cowboys will honour the late Carl Webb, I can only assume coach Todd Payten will have this side emotionally charged and do the right thing by the recently deceased Webb, who lost his life earlier this year due to MND. The Cowboys are flying at the moment but I am not sure if Payten would have been too pleased with their effort against the Tigers last Thursday, winning 48-30. The Tigers were down to 12 men shortly after half time but defense pretty much went out the window, which is something that Payten prides himself on as coach. I suspect that will tighten right up, especially for a Queensland Derby against their great rivals.
The Broncos: A Shadow of Their Former Selves
I have no idea what has happened to the Brisbane Broncos in 2024. You can guess a number of things that has happened and the reason for their incredible downfall. Rewind last year, they had one hand on the premiership but lost it. Since then, they have gone backwards and for mine, there is a sense of ego and arrogance about some of the players even though there is nothing achieved and the trophy cabinet is empty. They have been horrendous the last couple of weeks and against sides which really, they should be beating, so how can you tip or back them with confidence, more so without Ezra Mam and Payne Haas, two of their brighter sparks.
Adam Page's Predictions
Match Prediction: Normally, I'd say throw out the form guide when it comes to the Queensland Derby given they always (usually) aim up in these games, but how can you have any confidence in the Brisbane Broncos and their current form. Cowboys are the team with something to play for, in more ways than one, and should win comfortably.
Cowboys 13+: As stated above, I do think the Cowboys are going to win quite comfortably and I am confident they can win 13+.
Kyle Feldt 1+ Tries: Remarkable turnaround from the veteran winger. Once upon a time he was struggling to hold his spot in the team but he is more than holding his own and is scoring tries for fun in 2024. Suspect that will continue.
Murray Taulagi 1+ Tries: He has been quite good since not being selected for the Origin decider, whether it was via injury or form. His recent performances have been more than sound and I think the Broncos back line looks a bit on the weak side so I think he could have a night out.
