The harvest of soft wheat in France this season is expected to come in at no more than 26.7 million tons. That would be the lowest level in almost 40 years, figures from the department of agriculture in Paris show. Agriculture markets specialist Argus Media is talking of the smallest harvest in 46 years.
The departments´ statistical office Agreste´s estimate of 26.7 million tons of soft wheat represents a decrease of 25% compared to last season. The figure is also 24% lower than the average over the preceding 5 years.
The reason for this dramatic low wheat production is 2-fold: a historic low yield per hectare in combination with a much smaller area than in previous years. Agreste now puts the average yield for soft wheat at 6.24 ton per hectare, 15.5% less than in 2023 and significantly lower than its earlier estimates. That yield is still slightly higher than in the last disastrous year 2016, the agency says.
However, the area of soft wheat in France this summer is at a historic low level of 4.2 million hectares. Last autumn, many farmers all over the country couldn’t drill wheat or other grain crops because of the persistent heavy rain that went on for weeks on end. Those who managed to get some seed in so their work often destroyed because fields were flooded. “All together, this will lead to the lowest production of soft wheat of the last 40 years,” Agreste says.
The production of barley in France is estimated at 10.4 million tons, 15.4% less than last season and 12.2% under the 5-year average. For winter barley, the decrease is 26% due to the same weather problems last autumn, but that is party compensated by a larger production of spring barley. Overall, the yield per hectare is estimated at 5.76 tons per hectare for winter barley and 5.6 tons per hectare for the spring crop.
We’ve lost 900,000 hectares compared to 2016, that is leading to a harvest which will probably be much worse than in that year.
The low estimates of the department of agriculture have been confirmed by the harvest experiences farmers all over France are reporting. Based on a survey in the first week of August, market specialist Argus Media lowered its estimate for the production of soft wheat to 25.17 million tons. “The yield is very low but still higher than in the catastrophic 2016 season. But the area is 10.5% lower at 4,243 million hectares. We’ve lost 900,000 hectares compared to 2016, that is leading to a harvest which will probably be much worse than in that year,” director Gautier Le Molgat of Argus Media France told agricultural magazine agri-mutuel.com
Impact of Heavy Rains on French Wheat
The impact of the persistent rain on the French wheat crop is evident in the significantly reduced yields and the lower area under cultivation. According to Agreste, the average yield for soft wheat is 6.24 tons per hectare, down 15.5% from 2023. This decline in yield is a direct result of the rain, which hampered the development of the crops and led to disease outbreaks. The area of soft wheat planted in France this year is also at a historic low of 4.2 million hectares, a significant decrease from previous years. The heavy rains in autumn prevented farmers from planting their crops, and those who did plant were often forced to replant, leading to a decrease in overall production.
Impact on Global Grain Markets
The decline in France’s wheat harvest is expected to have a significant impact on global grain markets. France is the European Union’s largest wheat producer, and its production shortfall will likely lead to higher wheat prices. This will have a ripple effect on the global market, as other countries will need to make up for the shortfall. The reduced production will also likely impact the availability of wheat for export, potentially creating shortages in certain regions of the world.
Implications for European Grain Production
The challenging conditions for French grain farmers are not isolated. Other major grain producers in Europe, such as Germany, are also facing lower yields due to weather-related factors. The German Raiffeisen Farmers Association (DRV) projects a decline in overall grain production of 8% compared to last year. The DRV’s forecast indicates that Germany’s grain harvest will be the lowest since 2018, leading to increased reliance on imports. The association attributes the lower yields to the persistent rains throughout the growing season, which have significantly impacted crop yields and quality.
The Way Forward: Adapting to Climate Change
The impact of weather on grain production is a significant challenge for farmers around the world. The decline in French and German wheat harvests is a stark reminder of the need to adapt to climate change. Farmers need to implement strategies to mitigate the effects of extreme weather events, such as drought, flooding, and heatwaves. These strategies might include adopting drought-resistant varieties of crops, improving soil health, and using more efficient irrigation techniques. The challenges presented by climate change are not confined to the agricultural sector, impacting food security and global supply chains. Finding solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change requires collaboration between governments, businesses, and individuals.
Moving Forward
The impact of this challenging agricultural season will continue to unfold in the coming months. As global grain markets adjust to the lower French and European wheat production, it will be important to monitor the impact on prices and availability. The experience of this year is a powerful reminder of the vulnerability of global food systems to climate change, highlighting the need for proactive measures to ensure food security for a growing global population.
