Mayo General Election 2024: Aontú's Lawless Poised for a Surprise Victory?

The 2024 Mayo General Election is shaping up to be a dramatic contest, with a field of 16 candidates vying for five seats. While some races seem predictable, others are full of suspense, particularly the battle for the fifth seat. In 2016, the Irish electorate showed a strong desire for change, and in 2020, environmental concerns propelled Eamon Ryan to power. Now, a new political force is making waves: Aontú.

The first three seats appear relatively secure: Alan Dillon (FG), Rose Conway-Walsh (SF), and Dara Calleary (FF). These predictions are frequently echoed in casual conversations among political observers in recent weeks. However, the race for the remaining two seats is far from certain. The eliminations of other candidates could significantly benefit Paul Lawless (Aontú), potentially making him the election's biggest surprise.

Aontú's Rising Star: Paul Lawless

Aontú’s growing momentum is undeniable, particularly online. Their leader, Peadar Tóibín, received praise for his performance in the ten-leader debate on RTÉ's Upfront with Katie Hannon. This increased visibility, coupled with Lawless's strong local presence as a county councillor, could be pivotal. His performance in the 2020 election, where he received 2,574 first-preference votes as a relative unknown, showcases his potential.

Lawless's Local Strengths and National Appeal

Lawless’s position on Mayo County Council has significantly boosted his profile. His questions and motions, while sometimes controversial, have kept him in the spotlight. Furthermore, Aontú's stance on key issues, particularly those relating to social reforms and immigration, resonates with voters who feel a disconnect with mainstream politics. This is evident in the support he's garnered both among younger voters and more traditional supporters who feel that “We’ve gone too far with the social reforms,” echoing sentiments voiced by Michael Ring following Varadkar’s departure.

This strategy appears to be working. Aontú has been able to tap into a vacuum of coherent voices on the right of centre, and despite being described as a ‘one man show’, this has helped his party garner significant support.

The Shifting Sands: Analyzing the Competition

The race for the remaining seats is a fierce battle between the establishment parties and some independent candidates. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will see considerable competition from independent candidates who could benefit from the change. While incumbents like Dillon and Calleary seem safe, the impact of Sinn Fein’s national struggles on Rose Conway-Walsh's local popularity is uncertain. The addition of Mark Duffy to the Fine Gael ticket adds another layer of complexity. Furthermore, an increase in the number of seats in the Mayo constituency is likely to advantage a fringe party or candidate, adding to the existing volatility.

The Impact of Michael Ring's Absence

The absence of Michael Ring, a highly popular former TD, leaves a significant void. His strong personal vote, which often transcended party lines, is up for grabs. This creates an opportunity for independent candidates like Patsy O'Brien to capitalize on the disruption, increasing the likelihood that one of those candidates will secure a seat.

The battle between O’Brien and Martina Jennings, the CEO of Mayo Roscommon Hospice is particularly compelling. Both are strong contenders, with their fates intertwined, who ever is eliminated first will help the other one to secure a seat. Jennings will depend on drawing support from across party lines. O'Brien is expected to attract a significant portion of Ring's voters, especially the rural ones who feel “there is worry afoot”. These dynamics make their head-to-head battle decisive.

The Final Verdict: Predicting the Unexpected

Considering all of the factors mentioned above, I believe that Paul Lawless of Aontú will secure the fifth seat in Mayo. His ability to tap into public sentiment on key issues, his increased visibility, and the shifting political landscape all contribute to the potential for an upset. While bookmakers and conventional wisdom might offer different predictions, it is imperative to look at the current local trends. This election is highlighting not just the importance of individual candidates, but also the impact of political discourse, party trends, and the dynamics of the local communities.

The Mayo election shows modern politics is less about solving specific issues, and more about making a lot of noise. In that, Aontú appears to be excelling, and Lawless's campaign is a testament to this. The counting of votes begins on Saturday morning, and this constituency will be closely watched to see if this prediction holds. The votes from Ballina are expected to be opened first, and while it's hard to predict when the first count will be available, the effort is to ensure accuracy rather than speed. Regardless of the outcome, the race for the Mayo seats will be one to remember.

This election will see voters head to the 231 polling stations across the county, many of those in the newly added South Mayo area. The count will take place in the TF Royal Theatre, in Castlebar, starting at 9am on Saturday morning. The results are likely to be available Sunday and may potentially go into Monday.