Half of the Conference Semifinals field is set. The other half remains up for grabs, with eight teams competing in Game 3s this weekend for a place in the next round of the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs. What does each team vying for playoff glory have to do to prevail? And what could go wrong for each club? We’re diving into both of those questions, examining every team ahead of the decisive match in each Round One Best-of-3 Series.
What has to go right for LAFC
They have to put their best players in positions to be their best players. That means LAFC have to find moments to isolate Denis Bouanga in transition, feed Olivier Giroud with his back to goal, and activate their young, dynamic attackers on the right wing. If they’re not aggressive and vertical, that means they’re not taking anywhere near full advantage of the talent edge they have in the attack over Vancouver’s defensive personnel.
What could go wrong for LAFC
They could shoot themselves in the foot defensively, yet again. The 5-1 regular season loss to Columbus. The Leagues Cup final loss to Columbus. The 4-2 loss against the Galaxy in September. The 3-0 loss to the Whitecaps last weekend. LAFC’s defensive work in big games has been, uh, spotty at best this season. If they opt out of marking Ryan Gauld on a throw-in or fall asleep in transition, they’ll be in big trouble.
What has to go right for Vancouver
They have to continue to punish LAFC’s biggest defensive weakness. After a narrow loss in Game 1, Vanni Sartini went all-in by starting Fafà Picault opposite LAFC’s Kike Olivera, a winger-turned-wingback, and moving Ali Ahmed over to that same flank. It worked like a charm, with the 'Caps finding chance after chance down their left, with speed and know-how on their side. If Olivera keeps his spot at right wingback, Vancouver should exploit him with more direct movement. If Olivera is benched, it’ll be that much easier to hold firm defensively.
What could go wrong for Vancouver
They may not be able to stop Bouanga. Even in what was a brutally disappointing Game 2 loss for LAFC, the Gabon international still found chances. It’s almost impossible to grind Bouanga to a halt. Especially if Vancouver try to push numbers into the gaps in LAFC’s defensive structure, they could be in for a tough time as their hosts transition the other way.
What has to go right for Cincinnati
They have to play through their Argentines. If Lucho Acosta and Luca Orellano are firing, FC Cincinnati are hard to stop. So far in this series, though both players have directly contributed to goals, neither has been utilized quite enough. With a slew of long balls in Game 2, Acosta couldn’t stamp his mark on the match, while Orellano enjoyed his sixth-lowest touch count in any start this season. Find the Argentines, and success tends to follow.
What could go wrong for Cincinnati
They could lose the midfield battle again. The biggest factor behind Cincy’s loss in Game 2 was their failure to match NYCFC in midfield. Nick Cushing’s team enjoyed a man advantage, with Santi Rodríguez pinching in from the left halfspace to act as the fourth player against Pat Noonan’s double pivot and No. 10. If they fail to control the midfield, NYCFC will make them pay just like they did on Saturday.
What has to go right for New York City
Alonso Martínez has to be sharp. Because when he is, he does stuff like this to cap off a lovely possession sequence to see his team break into the lead. Note the killer pass and the killer finish:
If Martínez can be outlet, creator and finisher for NYCFC, they become an entirely different beast. The foundation is steady at the base of midfield, but if the attackers are creating notable advantages, life gets so much easier for the 2021 MLS Cup champs.
What could go wrong for New York City
They could misread the recipe on the road. That’s what happened in Game 1, when NYCFC fell 1-0 in Cincinnati. With Andrés Perea starting over Maxi Moralez, Cushing prioritized ground coverage over possession value. It didn’t work. Cincy wildly outplayed and outshot the visitors. But the idea had merit: Perea’s mobility should’ve been an asset. If Cushing opts for Moralez, it becomes harder for NYCFC to contain Cincy. If he opts for Perea, their attack takes a hit. Finding the right personnel recipe is crucial.
What has to go right for Orlando
Martín Ojeda and Facundo Torres have to be sharp. In Game 1, Orlando City’s dynamic attacking pairing was just that: dynamic. Ojeda helped open the game with his vision and off-ball work, while Torres’ movement and incision from the right halfspace sapped energy from Charlotte’s defensive block. On the road in Game 2, those two weren’t nearly as effective. Despite having more possession as a team, Orlando City created just 0.3 xG, according to FBref, down from 1.6 xG in the first outing. If their stars aren’t performing, the Lions will struggle.
What could go wrong for Orlando
Kristijan Kahlina could go supernova. One of the big concerns for Oscar Pareja’s team is they play well enough to win in Game 3, generate a bunch of high-quality shots, and it still just… doesn’t matter. Kristijan Kahlina has been the eraser in goal in 2024, saving more goals above expected than any other 'keeper, according to FBref. He saved two penalties in the Game 2 shootout. Kahlina has the power to sway this series to Charlotte in the blink of an eye.
What has to go right for Charlotte
They have to be solid in the box. Because they sure weren’t in Game 1:
Despite having three center backs on the field in Andrew Privett, Adilson Malanda and Tim Ream, who defends as a left back, Dean Smith’s team has struggled to control their own 18 over the last third of the season. Back in front of their home crowd in Game 2, Charlotte put together one of their tightest defensive displays of the season, locking down Orlando for nearly 90 minutes. The talent is there for this team to be horrible to play against. Let’s see if the execution is there, too.
What could go wrong for Charlotte
The attack might not have enough juice. They forced a Game 3, but Charlotte have scored exactly zero goals in two playoff games so far. They’ve been overly sluggish in transition and haven’t maximized their final third entries, though Smith’s more vertical front three for Game 2 had a greater impact than his front three for the loss in Orlando. There are some big personnel questions awaiting Smith on Saturday.
What has to go right for Miami
Not a lot. That’s how good Inter Miami are. If Lionel Messi has a rare off-night, there are more than a few other qualified individuals who can help pick up the slack. The same is true in reverse, where Messi can take a bad evening for his teammates and turn it into a locker room celebration. They’re not invincible, but it takes a lot for Miami to lose – that’s why we haven’t seen it happen very often in 2024.
What could go wrong for Miami
They could concede a couple of soft goals. That’s what happened in Atlanta in Game 2. The first concession came on the second phase of a set piece and the second came after Miami failed to win the ball in their own half and then allowed Xande Silva to shoot unopposed. Even in their record-breaking regular season, Inter Miami gave up chances. If they ship a couple of soft goals early in the game, things could change quickly.
What has to go right for Atlanta
They have to execute almost perfectly in every phase (and hope for a bit of luck). When you’re up against some of the biggest game-changers this sport has ever seen, you have to nail your game plan. Atlanta will have to be air-tight defensively, lightning-quick on the break and hope the finishing gods are in their favor. Upsets can happen – we’ve sure seen that already in this postseason! – but it’s hard to make them happen without a seamless on-field coordination.
What could go wrong for Atlanta
Saba Lobjanidze could get exposed at right wingback. Playing as the outside back on the right side of Rob Valentino’s back five, Lobjanidze is very much still adjusting to having more defensive responsibility in this year’s playoffs. Messi and Jordi Alba exposed some naive positioning from the Georgian in Game 2 and will, no doubt, be looking to isolate the attack-minded defender in the series decider. Lobjanidze, like the rest of his teammates, can’t afford to make many mistakes in Game 3.
I know, I know. We’re all rooting for the scenario where every single lower seed wins this weekend. That’s just what we, the millions (billions?) of Daily Kickoff readers, are about. Odds are though we’re just on this Earth to suffer, so, gut call here: It’s probably not going to happen. Still, we can’t count any of the underdogs out. Here’s why you can expect an upset, or two, or four.
The Whitecaps rolled over LAFC in Game 2. Ryan Gauld opened the scoring with his second goal of the series and Vancouver largely cruised the rest of the way to a 3-0 win. Yeah, LAFC had their chances. But the game state played a major role in that. Vancouver outshot LAFC 11-3 in the first half and took a 2-0 lead before LAFC started to pile on shots in the second half. LAFC couldn’t find a breakthrough.
And that’s a decent example of the biggest reason to believe Vancouver can get this done. LAFC aren’t really built to come from behind like the other elite teams in MLS are. They don’t have to do it often, but when they allow the first goal of the game and are forced to change up their typical counter-attacking style, they don’t have the inevitability of a Miami or a Columbus. (Yes, I saw the Red Bulls series, but still.)
The Whitecaps are just playing good ball right now. They thumped Portland in the Wild Card round, pulled off that 3-0 win over LAFC and are winning the games they’ve been criticized for being unable to win. That’s thanks in part to the addition of DP Stuart Armstrong in midfield and thanks, in even greater part, to Ryan Gauld doing typical Ryan Gauld things and putting in an absolute shift every time out. He’s been one of the best players in the league since he arrived and is putting on a show this postseason.
All it’s going to take to make this extremely nervy for LAFC is an opener from Gauld, Armstrong, Brian White or anyone else on the ‘Caps. An LAFC side that has to chase isn’t as scary.
Maybe someone can trick NYCFC into thinking TQL Stadium is actually in Queens? They’ve been a totally different team at home this year and that’s held true in this series. They were extremely lucky to only lose by one in Game 1 in Cincinnati then turned around and clobbered FC Cincinnati in a 3-1 win at Citi Field. If they’re going to pull this off they have to overcome a remarkably consistent trend.
Still, it’s not like they need proof of concept. They put up 3.5 xG worth of chances in Game 2. They have plenty of talent. They can go blow for blow with this Cincy side. All it’ll take to make an upset bid is a performance that’s even somewhat close to what they put in last Saturday. Now they just have to figure out how to do it a few hours from home.
Look, someone is probably going to have to score. Charlotte have yet to find the back of the net against Orlando in this series. They got away with it in Game 2, thanks to their typically excellent defending, but taking two games out of three without a goal would be unprecedented stuff.
It’s not a great sign that we still don’t seem to know what Charlotte’s best-attacking setup is. Charlotte’s front four in Game 1 featured Karol Świderski, Liel Abada, Brandt Broncio and Pep Biel. After Biel picked up a late red card in that one, Charlotte went with a front four of Abada, Bronico, Patrick Agyemang and Kerwin Vargas. Neither group found a way to break down Orlando.
Biel will be available for this one. That should provide at least a small boost to The Crown's attack. Whether they go with Świderski or Agyemang is unclear, but you can make an argument for either. Regardless of who’s out there though, Charlotte aren't asking for much from them. One goal may be enough to get another shot at penalties—advantage goes to probable MLS Goalkeeper of the Year winner Kristijan Kahlina there—or maybe even wins this outright. As tough as it can be to watch, Charlotte’s defense is going to keep them in every game. That gives them a chance on Saturday.
Let’s be real about the situation here. If Atlanta pull this off in Miami then we’re talking about the biggest upset in MLS since…well, Sunday. But still, we’d be talking about two of the biggest upsets in MLS history happening within a week of each other. Honestly, I think I’d give Atlanta the edge in the all-time upset rankings if it happens. They snuck into the playoffs through a back window so small no one thought someone could fit through it. If that team takes down the most-known MLS team ever, it goes to the top of the list, in my opinion.
That makes it sound like the Five Stripes are facing an impossible challenge, but it’s hard to consider an Atlanta win unimaginable when we’ve seen Atlanta United earn two wins and a draw in four games against Inter Miami this season. The Herons don’t do things that amplify Atlanta’s weaknesses—force bad giveaways, hit quickly in transition—and it allows any strengths the Five Stripes’ have to stand out a little more often. That’s typically been enough for Atlanta to make these matchups competitive.
The problem, of course, is one side has Lionel Messi and the other does not. No one will ever make money betting against him. Miami are far from invincible though. Atlanta’s mentality has shifted from “Wouldn’t it be cool if we got into the playoffs?” to “We’re destined to pull this off.” All they need is a draw and then some breaks in penalties. This could happen. And, from my view, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if it did. Either Atlanta win a close one or Miami hit a speed the Five Stripes just can’t handle. There’s no in-between.
We’ve talked a lot about upsets this week. Our MO at The Daily Kickoff is to value chaos over everything else. That’s why we have millions (billions?) of readers every day. But we should take a moment and consider that we may wake up Sunday morning without a single lower seed advancing to the Conference Semifinals.
Quite simply, the main reason is higher seeds have home-field advantage. That’s first, second and third on the list of reasons to pick a team to win in MLS. There are plenty of other reasons to believe that chalk will be the story at the end of the weekend, though.
The first goal matters in every game, but it seems to matter the most when it comes to LAFC. If they go up, there’s a strong chance you aren’t getting back in the game and things are about to get worse for you. Their ability to sit deep and counter at speed is a nightmare to deal with when you’re chasing a game. If Vancouver go down early, that might just be it. In LAFC’s two wins over the Whitecaps in October, they scored in the first and 30th minutes.
That being said, it doesn’t seem like they’ll get that opener from Olivier Giroud right now. Giroud is still looking for his first MLS goal. It will have to be Denis Bouanga or Mateusz Bogusz leading the way.
Yet there are far worse people to rely on. Bouanga didn’t make the same Landon Donovan MLS MVP push he did last year, but still ended up with 20 goals and 11 assists. He actually ended up with four more goal contributions than in his stellar 2023 season. Meanwhile, Bogusz put up 15 goals and seven assists in a breakout year. And even if Vancouver can slow those two down, they still have to deal with Cristian Olivera operating as a wingback. Olivera only scored six times this year, but he’s still goal-dangerous. He sealed LAFC’s 2-1 victory in Game 1.
That’s a ton of firepower for Vancouver to deal with. It might be too much to handle in the end. Especially if LAFC get up early again.
Game 1 and Game 2 of this series took on opposite shapes. Game 1 at TQL Stadium saw Cincy roll to a 1-0 win that could have been much, much worse if they capitalized on the 3.9 xG worth of chances they piled up. Game 2 at Citi Field saw NYCFC find the net three times on 3.5 xG worth of chances. Whoever has been at home has been creating constant chances.
Now it’s back to Cincinnati. That’s enough to give Cincy a huge edge, but the Garys are going to have to figure out what exactly went wrong for them in New York or they risk letting this slip away from them. In particular, Alonso Martínez and Santiago Rodríguez were torching Cincy’s back line. It probably helped that Maxi Moralez returned to the starting lineup to help dictate things in possession. If NYCFC stick with Moralez over Andrés Perea in midfield – and they should – Cincy will have to work a little harder to find a solution defensively.
Still, it’s Lucho Acosta on his home turf. And it’s not like Cincy struggled to find chances in New York. If they can figure out how to slow NYCFC down even a little, they should be fine.
Right now, there are no worries for this side defensively. Orlando haven’t allowed a goal in either of their two games against Charlotte. The only real concern is whether or not they can find the net. Or, ya know, even get off a shot.
In their 0-0 draw at Charlotte in Game 2, Orlando took just three shots. They only generated 0.4 xG worth of chances with the same starting XI they ran out in Game 1. Was that a big home crowd powering Charlotte to put in a little extra effort on an off night for Orlando? Or did the Crown figure the Lions out?
We should find out quickly in Game 3. But even if it devolves into another slog towards 0-0, Orlando haven’t been in much danger defensively this series. If that stays true on Saturday, they’ll probably be just fine. It might come down to whoever can score the game’s lone goal. In that situation, Orlando have the edge.
Lionel Messi. I’m not sure what more you need to be convinced they have a decent shot at holding off Atlanta.
MLS' playoff format in 2024 has received criticism on all fronts. From timing between matches to goal-differential and criteria points not being a factor at all. If there's one thing it has brought, though, it's been drama.
The Round 1 Best-of-3 format saw reigning MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew eliminated by the New York Red Bulls on Game 2 of the series, while Minnesota United upset Real Salt Lake. Elsewhere, in expected fashion, the LA Galaxy pummeled the Colorado Rapids to advance.
Everyone else? There are eight teams fighting for their playoff lives in game 3 of their respective series - including Lionel Messi's Inter Miami and Olivier Giroud's LAFC, the No. 1 seeds of each conference. Only four will advance.
GOAL takes a look at the keys to success for each team, and who can be the difference-maker for each squad.
