Pascal Siakam Trade: A Surprising Success Story?

The Toronto Raptors' January 17th trade sending Pascal Siakam to the Indiana Pacers, following the OG Anunoby deal, marked a turning point in the post-championship era. While the Anunoby trade was lauded and has only gotten better (with RJ Barrett excelling), the Siakam trade was initially seen as a potential franchise blunder. Many questioned whether the return was sufficient compensation for a two-time All-NBA player.

The Deal's Initial Components and Early Concerns

The Raptors acquired three first-round picks in the deal, along with the expectation of moving veteran Bruce Brown. However, the Raptors were unable to find a suitable trade for Brown before the deadline or during the offseason. He has since undergone knee surgery, creating uncertainty about his value and future contributions.

One of those first-round picks was used to acquire Canadian veteran Kelly Olynyk and former lottery pick Ochai Agbaji from Utah. While Olynyk's back injury sidelined him for the season's start, he’s still expected to make a significant contribution off the bench. It's Agbaji's performance that has been pivotal in changing perceptions of the Siakam trade.

Ochai Agbaji's Astonishing Improvement

Agbaji, a 24-year-old wing, has emerged as one of the NBA's most improved players. He's not only a lockdown defender tasked with guarding top offensive players nightly, but his offensive game is flourishing. His shooting percentages are remarkable; boasting a 52.2% field goal percentage and a 44.3% three-point percentage. His 21 corner three-pointers are a league high, showcasing his efficiency with 53.8% accuracy on those attempts. Two-thirds of his shots are taken within the restricted area, placing him third-best on the team for that category. This significant turnaround is a testament to his dedication and the Raptors' development system. The Raptors also secured the promising Ja'Kobe Walter with another of their picks acquired in the Siakam trade; although Walter’s season has been hampered by shoulder injuries. Agbaji is still playing on a cheap rookie deal, and the Raptors hold matching rights should he reach restricted free agency after this season.

The Pacers' Struggles and the Value of Future Picks

The final piece of the Siakam trade puzzle, and arguably the most impactful in the long run, is the 2026 first-round pick (protected if it lands in the top 4 in 2026 or 2027). Initially, this pick seemed less valuable given Tyrese Haliburton's rise as a star and the Pacers' strong performance as NBA Cup runner-up. The expectation was that the pick would land late in the first round. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically. Haliburton has faced injury setbacks, impacting his performance and the Pacers' overall success. Depth issues, particularly up front, have further hampered the team. The Pacers began the season with a disappointing 5-7 record before facing Miami on Sunday. The team’s overall scoring, at only 111.8 points per 100 possessions before Sunday, was a far cry from the previous season's 120.5 points per 100 possessions, trailing behind only champion Boston.

This struggles of the Pacers significantly increases the value of that 2026 pick for the Raptors. While two summers away, the potential for it to land high in the draft is significantly greater than originally anticipated.

A Deeper Look into Indiana's Offensive Slump

Indiana's offensive struggles are not solely attributed to Haliburton's reduced shooting percentage (40% overall, 28.7% from three). Andrew Nembhard's subpar performance before sustaining an injury also contributed. Myles Turner's significant drop in two-point shooting efficiency further exacerbates the issue, compounded by increased playing time due to injuries to his backup center options.

A Re-evaluation of the Siakam Trade

While most star players command larger returns in trades, the Siakam deal is now looking far more favourable for the Raptors than initially perceived. Agbaji's unexpected development, combined with the Pacers' struggles and the potential of a high draft pick in 2026, paint a picture of a savvy move by Toronto’s front office. The initial criticism seems increasingly misplaced. Although it may not be considered a blockbuster equivalent to the Vince Carter trade, the trade shows promise to offer a solid return in the long term, potentially exceeding expectations.

The Verdict: A Win-Win?

Ultimately, the Pascal Siakam trade may prove to be a win-win scenario for both teams. The Raptors have secured promising young talent, a valuable draft pick, and are reaping the unexpected rewards of Agbaji's improved play. While the Pacers acquired a star player, their performance this season, and the potential future pick for the Raptors underscores the intricacies and unpredictability inherent in NBA trades. Ultimately, time will tell the final verdict of this trade's impact on both franchises.