A return of the “grand coalition” of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil after the next general election, supported by Independent TDs, is the preferred choice of the majority of voters according to the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks opinion poll. Two-thirds of voters (66pc) back a second term for the Civil War parties (with Independents) over a Sinn Féin-led government excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil (34pc).
The poll, which was conducted between September 22 and 25, surveyed 1,000 adults across the Republic of Ireland, reveals a significant shift in the political landscape. The findings highlight the continued dominance of the two main political parties, despite recent challenges and a growing housing crisis that has fueled public discontent.
The Coalition's Standing:
Fine Gael (25pc) and Fianna Fáil (21pc) have both seen their support increase by one point, while Sinn Féin’s popularity has dropped by the same amount to 18pc. When the Green Party’s 4pc rating is taken into account, the three Coalition parties now hold 50pc of the national vote, a level of support for the Government not seen in an Ireland Thinks poll since July 2020. This resurgence in support comes amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty, with the country facing rising inflation and a cost-of-living crisis.
The state of the other parties is: Social Democrats 4pc (+1), Labour Party 4pc (no change), Aontú 3pc (-1), Solidarity-People Before Profit 2pc (no change) and Independents/Other 19pc (+1).
The Housing Crisis: A Defining Issue
The poll also highlights the significance of housing as a key issue for Irish voters. A staggering 45pc of those surveyed identified introducing measures to get more houses built as the most important priority for the State, significantly outpacing income tax cuts (22pc), state pension hikes (14pc) and social welfare increases (9pc).
A Demand for Action:
This overwhelming focus on housing underscores the public’s frustration with the ongoing housing crisis. Despite the government’s efforts to address the issue, the demand for affordable housing remains high, with many struggling to find suitable accommodation. The poll results clearly indicate that voters are seeking tangible action from the government to alleviate the housing crisis, with 58pc of voters stating that they will not be swayed by giveaways.
The Government is in the middle of preparing an €8.3bn budget package that will include tax cuts worth €1.4bn. The Sunday Independent has learned that a separate cost-of-living package worth more than €1bn is being prepared and could include a series of electricity credits along with one-off double payments of social welfare benefits, including child benefit and the state pension.
Despite these plans, only 2pc of those surveyed said the renter’s tax credit should be a budget priority, while 3pc said tax breaks for landlords. This indicates that voters are not convinced by traditional solutions and are calling for more impactful measures.
The Future of Housing Policy:
There is huge public support (66pc) for the introduction of the controversial Residential Zoned Land Tax (RZLT), while fewer than one in four (19pc) oppose its introduction. However, 45 per cent of people said they disagree with Finance Minister Jack Chambers’ decision to defer the tax due to concerns that farmers might be unfairly targeted by the measure, which is aimed at forcing people to develop land that has been zoned for housing.
The Budget:
While voters prioritize housing, a significant majority (57pc) want the Government to prioritize investment in public spending over tax cuts (40pc) in Budget 2025.
Cuts to the USC and increases to the entry points for tax bands are also expected in Budget 2025, along with significant changes to inheritance tax laws to let families keep more of the money left to them in wills.
Electricity tax credits are firmly back on the table after the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities (CRU) recommended an increase in household charges for developing and managing the electricity grid.
“There wasn’t really the case for introducing more electricity credits when prices were falling,” a government source said. “But the CRU’s announcement means we will have to look at introducing at least one €150 credit.”
The People's Verdict:
The poll suggests that voters are looking for a government that is focused on addressing the pressing issues facing the country, particularly the housing crisis. While the coalition has seen a boost in support, it remains to be seen whether these gains will be enough to secure a second term in the next general election. Ultimately, the outcome will hinge on the government's ability to deliver on its promises and address the concerns of the electorate.
