It may only be Week 7, but Sunday night's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets will have a playoff-like atmosphere.
New York (2-4) comes to Pittsburgh needing a win to avoid possibly falling completely out of the AFC playoff picture by Halloween. The Jets, who started the week as underdogs, are now favored to beat the Steelers after acquiring star receiver Davante Adams, whom the Jets hope can replicate the productivity he had in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers.
Russell Wilson is expected to make his long-awaited season debut for Pittsburgh (4-2) despite the solid play this season of Justin Fields. Wilson's expected debut will take place on a night where the Steelers will honor the 50th anniversary of the franchise's first Super Bowl team. The celebration will include throwback jerseys honoring the 1974 Steelers.
Below is a full breakdown of Sunday's crucial AFC showdown, along with a prediction of how we think the game will shake out. But first, here's how you can follow the action in real time.
The Davante Adams Factor
Adams' addition has buoyed optimism in New York despite the team's three-game losing streak. Adams' arrival is big, but can one player make that big of a difference for a struggling unit?
He won't fix everything, but Adams can significantly improve the Jets offense. His arrival should further open things up for Garrett Wilson, who has been on a tear over the past two weeks after a slow start. Adams' presence should also create more space for Allen Lazard, another former Packer who currently leads the Jets with five touchdown receptions.
A better passing game should also lead to more success for a running game that has largely underperformed up to this point, although Breece Hall is coming off his best game of the season. All of this should correlate to a better version of Rodgers, who is currently on pace to complete less than 62% of his passes for the first time since 2015.
One thing Adams can't fix, though, is an offensive line that is simply not good enough. The unit allows too many hits of Rodgers, commits too many costly penalties and has not consistently opened up running lanes for Hall and Braelon Allen. Expect the Steelers to eagerly exploit this weakness on Sunday night with a healthy dose of pressure, led by perennial All-Pro T.J. Watt. The Steelers will also have fellow starting outside linebacker Alex Highsmith back in the lineup after he missed the previous three games with an injury.
Defensive Matchups to Watch
Joey Porter Jr. will likely get the assignment of guarding Wilson, which would set up a matchup of veterans in Adams and Donte Jackson. The longtime Carolina Panther, Jackson has been everything the Steelers had hoped when they traded for him this offseason. His arrival gives the Steelers their best cornerback duo since Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend back in the mid-2000s.
While the Steelers have a possible checkmate for Wilson and Adams, Lazard could be the X factor when the Jets have the ball. Rookie Beanie Bishop Jr. has been solid, but Rodgers will surely look to test him early to see if he is up to the task.
Pittsburgh has the advantage in the trenches, led by perennial Pro Bowler Cameron Heyward. But that won't deter the Jets from running the ball enough to keep the defense honest. New York will continue run the ball, even if they don't have success early on.
The key matchup will be Rodgers versus the middle of Pittsburgh's defense, specifically the Steelers linebackers. If Patrick Queen, Elandon Roberts and rookie Payton Wilson can prevent Rodgers and the Jets backs from doing too much damage, that'll bode extremely well for the home team. Conversely, the Jets' chances of winning will go up exponentially if Rodgers can take advantage of a unit that hasn't made enough splash plays so far.
New York's offensive line also needs to keep Rodgers upright, which has been an issue all year. The Jets will not win this game if Rodgers continues to spend time focused on the oncoming pass rush and not on his receivers downfield.
Wilson's Return
All signs point to Wilson starting, which means that Pittsburgh's offense will look somewhat different than it did during the season's first six weeks.
You can expect Wilson to lean on Najee Harris, who is coming off one of the best games of his four-year career. New York boasts the NFL's No. 2 pass defense, but the unit is a pedestrian 17th in the league against the run, so it's safe to assume that Wilson will spend a good portion of the night to No. 22. One issue, though, is Pittsburgh's depth at running back, as Jaylen Warren's season has largely been hampered by injuries up to this point.
Speaking of running, Fields is the Steelers' second-leading rusher and is first on the team with five rushing touchdowns. Even if Wilson starts, one can expect to still see Fields get some snaps on Sunday night. Fields' mobility gives Pittsburgh's offense an added dimension it simply does not have with Wilson, so it would be extremely unlikely if Fields' talents aren't further utilized.
Specifically, you can expect to see Fields enter the game in short yardage and red zone situations, similarly to how the Steelers used quarterback/receiver Kordell Stewart during their AFC championship-winning season back in 1995. This is just another challenge that the Jets defense will have to deal with.
Wilson isn't as mobile, but he is probably better when it comes to maximizing red zone possessions. Wilson threw 26 touchdowns last year, with the majority of those occurred inside the opponents' 20-yard line. While this will likely lead to more scoring opportunities for Steelers No. 1 wideout George Pickens, you can also expect more red zone production from tight end Pat Freiermuth, who developed a quick rapport with Wilson this past spring and summer prior to Wilson injuring his calf.
Key Injury Updates
Two notable injuries are at center for Pittsburgh and at cornerback for the Jets. Ryan McCollum will replace rookie Zach Frazier at center, while Jarrick Bernard-Converse -- a converted safety -- is slated to replace D.J. Reed at cornerback. McCollum has the unenviable task of going up against New York's talented IDL duo of Quinnen Williams and Javon Kinlaw. Bernard-Converse will likely be tasked with guarding Van Jefferson, who hasn't contributed much to Pittsburgh's offense so far.
Key Matchups to Watch
New York's defense has the advantage in this matchup, but they have clear areas that Pittsburgh can exploit. While extremely good against the pass, the Jets have struggled with mobile quarterbacks (see Josh Allen last week), which is another reason why Fields will probably get some reps. They have also been susceptible against the run (see Bills running back Ray Davis last week).
While somewhat elementary, this matchup is going to come down to possession downs. The Jets defense is ninth in the NFL in third-down efficiency, while Pittsburgh's offense is 19th in that department. Like the Jets offense, the Steelers offense has also committed several costly pre-snap penalties this season that ultimately led to third-and-long situations. This cannot happen on Sunday night if the Steelers expect to win.
Furthermore, the Steelers need to protect Wilson (who was sacked 100 times during his two seasons in Denver) while establishing their running game. This is also a game where Pickens (who will be matched up with Jets All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner) needs to play like a No. 1 receiver.
What's at Stake
Ironically, Rodgers' and the Jets' season so far have resembled the final year for Brett Favre, Rodgers' predecessor with the Vikings. Despite a slow start for Favre and the 2010 Vikings, everyone was hesitant to write them off, especially after the Vikings brought back future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss in a last-ditch effort to salvage the season.
The 2010 Vikings started 2-5 and finished with a 6-10 record, and Rodgers and the current Jets are in jeopardy of going down a similar road if they don't win Sunday night's game. This fact will surely create a sense of desperation on the visitor's sideline.
For the Steelers, this is a game that would validate their standing as a legitimate challenger to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens for the AFC North title. A loss, however, would justify doubts that Pittsburgh is still a fringe playoff team and not a true contender.
Prediction
This game comes down to three keys: Wilson's efficiency running the offense, Rodgers' ability to stay upright enough to pick apart Pittsburgh's defense and special teams play. While the first two keys could go either way, the Steelers have a big edge when it comes to special teams, especially at kicker with Chris Boswell, who is perhaps the most underrated player at his position. That gives the Steelers the edge in what should be a competitive game.
Score: Steelers 20, Jets 17
Bonus
SportsLine expert R.J. White is on a 66-35 against-the-spread roll on Steelers games. We can tell you he's leaning Under on the points total, but who does he have ATS? Find out here.
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