Nations League: Scotland v Croatia

Venue: Hampden Park, Glasgow Date: Friday, 15 November Time: 19:45 GMT

Coverage: Listen live on BBC Sounds and BBC Radio Scotland and follow live updates on the BBC Sport website & app

Scotland's stay in the UEFA Nations League's top tier could be brought to its end on Friday, when they face an almost must-win game against League A Group 1 rivals Croatia.

The hosts will be relegated if they lose and Poland avoid defeat to Portugal - or if they draw and the Poles pull off a shock win - while their visitors are closing in on a place in the quarter-finals.

Though they battled against the odds to finally put a first point on the board last month, Scotland had previously followed their dismal exit from Euro 2024 with three straight defeats at the start of their latest Nations League campaign.

Steve Clarke's side lie bottom of Group 1 and are in distinct danger of heading straight back down to League B, even if successfully scrapping for a rare clean sheet earned them a gritty 0-0 draw with leaders Portugal last time out.

That result may have relieved some of the pressure on Clarke's shoulders, but Scotland are still enduring their longest ever winless run on home soil (six matches) and also their longest streak without a competitive victory (10).

In fact, failure to take maximum points on Friday night would see them equal their worst winless sequence overall, drawing level with a nine-game run set back in 1998.

It could have been a very different story, as conceding late goals against Portugal and Poland cost precious points, while Ryan Christie's first-half strike in October's reverse fixture was overturned by a Croatian comeback in Zagreb, where Che Adams had a potential equaliser chalked off by the VAR.

Now, at least four points will be required from their final two fixtures if Scotland are to defy the drop - and even finishing third would result in a relegation playoff.

While Croatia have never won in Scotland - as they prepare for their first trip to Hampden since October 2013, when they lost 2-0 in a World Cup qualifier - goals from Igor Matanovic and veteran striker Andrej Kramaric secured victory over the Scots last month.

Three days later, Zlatko Dalic saw his side miss out on sealing both second spot in Group 1 and a place in the quarter-finals, as they let a two-goal lead slip against Poland and had to settle for an eventful 3-3 draw.

Having started with defeat in Portugal and a home win over the Poles, the 2023 Nations League runners-up have accrued seven points thus far, and that has them on the brink of qualifying for the knockout rounds again.

If they win in Glasgow - or even if they draw and Poland fail to defeat Portugal - Croatia can wrap up progress with one game to spare, as their growing fondness for UEFA's newest international tournament continues.

Only Greece have won more games across the last two editions of the Nations League, which actually represents quite a turnaround, as Dalic and co had lost seven of their first 10 matches in the competition.

Croatia have also scored in each of their last 14 away games all told, averaging just over two goals per game in the process, so they can head for Glasgow confident of breaching their hosts' leaky back line.

Scotland's World Cup hopes

After lamenting the loss of several experienced players to injury over the past few months, Scotland will welcome back Jack Hendry, John McGinn and Stuart Armstrong this month, though they must do without Torino striker Che Adams.

The latter missed last week's Derby della Mole against Juventus with a thigh injury and has not yet recovered, so Tommy Conway, Lyndon Dykes and Lawrence Shankland will all vie to start up front.

None of the trio are in top form though, as Conway has scored five goals for Middlesbrough, Dykes has yet to find the net in League One, while Shankland has only one goal to show for his efforts this term following an excellent 33-goal haul for club and country last season.

Whoever is selected should receive support from McGinn and Scott McTominay, whose Napoli teammate Billy Gilmour is set to pit his wits against Croatia's playmaking maestro Luka Modric in midfield.

The visitors will be missing Lovro Majer and Bruno Petkovic due to injury, but Modric skippers an experienced squad also featuring Ivan Perisic: the PSV Eindhoven winger has been directly involved in three goals in two games against Scotland but has never scored across 18 Nations League appearances.

As first-choice goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic is suspended after being sent off versus Poland, Augsburg's Nediljko Labrovic should deputise between the posts on Friday, when Scotland's 41-year-old stopper Craig Gordon will continue to stand in for the injured Angus Gunn.

Scotland possible starting lineup:Gordon; Ralston, Souttar, Hendry, Robertson; McLean, Gilmour; McGinn, McTominay, Doak; Dykes

Croatia possible starting lineup:Labrovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Baturina, Kramaric; Matanovic

Croatia can afford to play with a certain amount of freedom, as qualification is within their own hands, while Scotland are feeling the weight of public expectation.

Performances have improved, but the Tartan Army may have to wait a while longer to celebrate an elusive home win, given their opponents' combination of guile and steel.For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

The Bigger Picture

The late Craig Brown was as dedicated as he was meticulous as Scotland manager.

There was always a match to prepare for, but Brown was studious when it came to the mid-to-long term prospects of the national team.

Seeding for future tournaments was never far from his mind when it came to choosing friendly opposition and attempting to boost the team’s ranking whenever possible.

In September 2023, Scotland defeated Cyprus in Euro 2024 qualifying to effectively seal a place at the finals in Germany. They have only won once since and not at all competitively.

With a Nations League promotion secured the year before and a major tournament to prepare for, the decision was taken to take on friendlies, generally, against top-ranked nations.

There followed punishing defeats by England, France and the Netherlands, with competitive losses to Spain and the Euro 2024 humbling at the hands of the hosts on the opening night in Munich.

Failing to get the better of Georgia, a Erling Haaland-less Norway in their final Euro qualifiers, and Northern Ireland and Finland in friendlies didn’t help the cause as Scotland struggled to regain the composure they had previously showed in spades.

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The evidence in the performances in Nations League A this autumn points to an improved level against Europe's bigger nations.

With the exception of the first half of the opener against Poland, Scotland have performed well, even if results have not neccessarily followed.

That frustrating late defeat against the Poles at Hampden is increasingly looking like a blow to the prospect of reaching a first World Cup since 1998, when Brown had the reins. Steve Clarke needs snookers as a result.

His side lost 3-2 to Poland despite roaring back from 2-0 down at half-time. Since then, despite some strong showings, they remain winless with the visit of Croatia and a trip to Poland to go.

Thanks to a run of one win in 16 and the longest-ever sequence of competitive games without a victory, Scotland’s world ranking has plummeted to 51. It had been as high as 30th after the wins over Norway and Georgia in June 2023.

They are now just outside the top 24 in Europe, which means they are destined for pot three in the qualifying draw for the World Cup in the Americas in 2026.

As is usually the case with Scotland, a crumb of hope remains at the business end of a campaign. In this case, it is that pot three can stil be avoided.

They can still, incredibly, scramble a place in pot one and avoid the highest-ranked nations in next year’s qualifiers by squeezing into the top two in their Nations League section alongside Portugal.

That is because world rankings will only be used to determine the World Cup qualification pots for sides who finish outside the top two of Nations League A.

But that would require Scotland winning consecutive games for the first time since the halcyon days of those early Euro 2024 qualifiers last year.

Due to the head-to-head tiebreaker, it would need a two-goal win over Croatia at Hampden on Friday and similar in Poland on Monday. At the same time, Portugal would need to beat the Poles at home, and do the same to the Croats in Zagreb.

If that sequence comes to pass, Scotland would finish in an improbable second place in the section and seal both a pot-one berth for the World Cup qualifying draw on December 13 and a place in March’s Nations League quarter-finals.

The benefits of being in pot one are obvious given only the group winners in World Cup qualifying are guaranteed a place at the finals, with the runners-up going into the play-offs.

Only Nations League group winners have the insurance policy of a guaranteed play-off and that horse has long since bolted for Scotland.

It means that if the Scots are in pot three they could face a tricky route to a first World Cup in what will be 28 years by the time the tournament rolls around.

France, Spain or England are among the top seeds, and pot two could throw up games with the likes of Ukraine, Turkey, Slovakia, Greece or Norway rather than pot three sides such as Finland, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland or Iceland.

That is largely out of Scotland’s hands. Clarke's side will need two wins in the next five days and results elsewhere to go their way - chiefly Norway losing either in Slovenia or at home to Kazakhstan.

Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Greece are also within striking distance for the Scots but - unlike Norway - they don’t need two wins to be uncatchable.

But regardless of what happens, these two final Nations League games will have repercussions for the next 12 months for this Scotland team.