A 50-point frolic against the Fiji second team this will not be. Scotland welcome the Springboks, champions of the southern hemisphere, champions of the world, champions of the sort of rugby to make grown men cower, to Edinburgh on Sunday – and they know this is when it gets horribly serious.
It has been faintly amusing, faintly absurd, to watch South Africa’s head coach, Rassie Erasmus, try to mount a charm offensive during the week, all touchy-feely, we-want-to-be-loved one minute, all seven-one-split-on-the-bench, hear-our-roar the next. The Springboks know how to win rugby matches; it seems winning hearts is their next directive.
This should not be quite as hard as they are making out. The old Bomb Squad cliche is very much based on a thing, but South Africa can cut teams to shreds as beautifully as they can bludgeon them to death brutally – and this has been the case for a while. Still, the squad Erasmus has picked for Scotland, even while he protests to the world that he and his boys just want to be loved, suggests they have brutality in mind.
Scotland respond to the menace of the Springboks by fielding six forwards on their bench, once an outlandish device, now perfectly common in the savage world of international rugby.
It was last year that the Springboks introduced that world to the deliberate (as opposed to emergency) selection of seven forwards on the bench. Indeed, they won a World Cup final with it. Here they roll out the tactic once more, Grant Williams the one back on the bench, one of those lightning scrum-half-cum-winger types.
The world protested long and hard about a seven-one split last year, citing this as the sort of antic that gives rugby – and the Springboks – a bad name. Erasmus, in peddling the conceit again, tells the world back that he does not care. He just wants to be loved.
How Gregor Townsend would love to have to appeal for love. His Scotland team have long been up there with their opponents last weekend, Fiji, as top candidates for the less coveted title of everyone’s second favourite team. Sometimes they play as if winning people’s hearts is of more concern than winning the match in question. Certainly, they have on occasion contrived to lose in the most heartbreaking manner imaginable.
Townsend will know his work is complete when his side have become less popular, which is best achieved by winning matches – and competitions – with serial regularity. Glasgow have gone some way to achieving this, currently champions of the United Rugby Championship, a status they acquired by winning in South Africa, no less, in the lair of the Bulls.
Seven Glasgow players will start – against four Bulls – but there any comparison will likely end. Glasgow’s win, as popular as any for the above reasons, was achieved in classic ambush style, finishing fourth in the regular season, before riding a wave of form through the playoffs, right up to the final. South Africa, now so familiar with their Celtic confreres in the URC, will need no alerting to Scotland’s threat.
Tom Jordan is given a first start at full-back by Townsend. Certain waspish comments about Scotland’s array of talents not of this nation born have emanated from the Springbok camp, easily missed amid the appeals for love. Jordan is but the latest, a playmaker from New Zealand who has qualified through residency.
His favoured position is fly-half but Finn Russell returns to the side there from Bath, free to play now the international window is open. Blair Kinghorn, meanwhile, who might have been expected to play at full‑back, returns from Toulouse to line up on the wing, replacing Darcy Graham, scorer of four tries against Fiji, who has failed his head injury assessment.
This will be the second rerun of a World Cup pool match, following Wales-Fiji. South Africa terrorised Scotland then. Ominously, they can field so intimidating a lineup featuring just two players from the starting side that day. Franco Mostert returns from a broken leg to partner Eben Etzebeth in the second row.
In a sport with such an array of player types, Etzebeth, captain for the day, could lay claim to being the best in the world. Antoine Dupont might be a more popular choice, certainly more loved, but in the business of winning rugby matches, none are so well versed as Etzebeth, or this Springboks team of which he is the heart and soul. They can work on the love thing when they have retired.
The other World Cup rerun on Sunday will take place in Cardiff, where Wales entertain Fiji. Or vice versa. These visitors can do nothing if not put on a show.
Fiji took a bit of a hammering last week in Scotland, but they were not helped by certain decisions against them in the first quarter, during which Scotland racked up a 26-0 lead. But that was without most of their best players. They are bolstered by the inclusion this week of six of those, now released by their clubs for the international window. It means a predominantly inexperienced Wales will have to be on their mettle.
Should they not, they will likely go down to their 10th defeat in a row. One has to go back to that same World Cup pool stage last year for Wales’s most recent win, against Georgia. That was the last of a campaign that yielded four from four, starting with the dramatic win over Fiji on the opening weekend in sweltering Bordeaux. Many thought Fiji, again, more than hard-done-by in that match, but the Wales team they faced then seems to belong to a very different time and place.
Only four of the starting lineup will feature, all of them in the pack. Will Rowlands and Adam Beard form a reassuring presence in the engine room, having missed the summer campaign, which resulted in defeats against South Africa and Australia (twice). Elsewhere, the cap quotient is further boosted by the selection of Tomos Williams and Gareth Anscombe. Their Gloucester teammate Max Llewellyn is picked in the centre with Ben Thomas, the playmaker of Cardiff, while Blair Murray, a Kiwi with a Welsh mother, is given his debut on the wing.
Confidence is low in the Wales camp, after a winless Six Nations, their first wooden spoon since 2003. A 10th defeat in a row would bode ill for the rest of the series, with Australia and South Africa to come.
Springboks' 'Bomb Squad' Threat: A Nuclear Challenge for Scotland
Erasmus dropped a bombshell of his own, naming seven forwards and one backline player on his bench for the showdown at Murrayfield, a tactic they have not used since the Rugby World Cup victory over New Zealand. He has also dropped Springboks captain Siya Kolisi to the bench with the flanker named amongst the replacements for the first time since the 2019 Rugby World Cup pool stage match against Namibia.
Meanwhile, Kwagga Smith starts at number eight as he celebrates his 50th cap for his country and is joined by Elrigh Louw and Marco van Staden also in the back-row.
Many have been surprised by Erasmus’ selection but his counterpart Townsend has caught the Bok boss by surprise too as he was not expecting Glasgow Warriors fly-half Tom Jordan to be selected at full-back. Jordan has been a standout for Glasgow and enjoyed a bright cameo off the bench against Fiji which included a brilliant try-saving tackle. Still, Erasmus knew that Scotland would need to make changes with Darcy Graham ruled out but did not predict that Jordan would get a crack.
Scotland’s attack will look different from the one that decimated Fiji in the opening round of the Autumn Internationals, but the Springboks are not about to be caught off guard. The Springboks have been vocal about the need to do their homework on Jordan. "We thought that they would play Blair Kinghorn on the wing,” Erasmus said. “But I didn’t see the full-back selection coming. We thought that when Darcy Graham got injured that they might put the best guy under the high ball on the wing – Kinghorn – which they did, so we will need to do some homework in the next 34 hours on Tom Jordan specifically.”
Erasmus also highlighted the strength of the Scottish pack, particularly at the lineouts. The URC champions Glasgow Warriors are known for their prowess in the maul, and Erasmus expects a tough battle. “Our players have told us and so has our analysis on Glasgow and Edinburgh that they very competitive at the lineouts and it is difficult to get the ball on your terms,” he said. “It’s difficult to stop them as well and they have a special way in defending mauls as well.”
Scotland's 'Almost-Contenders' Seeking a Breakthrough
We regularly hear from Scotland players and coaches how, on their day, they can beat any team in the world. They have claimed plenty of big scalps under Gregor Townsend - France, England, Wales and Australia have all been beaten home and away. There have been a couple of near misses against New Zealand, some fairly competitive matches - last year’s World Cup aside - against South Africa, while Ireland have had the hex over Scotland since 2017. That big statement win over a team recognised as being at the very top of the international game has proved elusive. A single victory to propel Scotland from the seemingly endless purgatory of almost-contenders to a side finally capable of competing with the true elites of rugby union.
Toppling South Africa, the back-to-back world champions, at Murrayfield in the Autumn Nations Series on Sunday would tick that particular box and then some. “I think it's obvious that we've been searching for this win against a top opponent like the All Blacks or the Springboks or Ireland, one of those top three teams, for a long time now,” Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu said. “Getting that win instils a little bit of belief in your team. We take this as an opportunity for this game to kickstart what we want this team to achieve.”
Facing the 'Bomb Squad': A Test of Nerve
When Mike Tyson was in his pomp as heavyweight champion in the late 1980s, the fear was writ large on his opponents' faces as they walked to the ring, fully aware of the grim fate about to befall them. The Springboks and their fabled 'Bomb Squad' coming off the bench have instilled a similar terror in recent years. For Tuipulotu and his mates, it's about playing the team, not the aura. “A lot of those games against the Springboks are lost before the whistle even gets blown,” said the Glasgow centre. “Our job is to make sure that’s not us. I think that’s one of our main things, that we have a free swing at the world champions. The most important thing is that we hop off that bus and be here to win. When I was growing up in Australia and you watch all the Tri-Nations - what now is the Rugby Championship - obviously the Springboks have such an aura around them. It’s kind of weird now that I’m in a position where I’m going to captain a side against them. It’s a massive opportunity for me and I just want to grab it with two hands. I know this is a game that we’ve been searching for a long time, not just South Africa, but we’ve been searching for a big win here at Murrayfield for a long time. Sunday is an opportunity for that.”
If Scotland fans are looking for reasons to believe their heroes can upset the world champions, a dive into the history books is not recommended. The Springboks have won the last eight meetings between the sides, and 15 of the last 16, with Scotland’s solitary success coming in 2010 when Dan Parks kicked them to a 21-17 victory. The most recent clash was the World Cup Pool B opener last year when the Boks extinguished Scotland's attacking threat to ease to an 18-3 win. With the likes of captain Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit - Scotland’s tormenter-in-chief in Marseille last year - selected to start on the bench, some wonder if Rassie Erasmus has made the call with a view to his all-star replacements making a late impact at Murrayfield, or with one eye on Twickenham and next weekend’s showdown with England.
Stand-in skipper Eben Etzebeth, the legendary lock who will win his 129th cap on Sunday, was quick to shut down any talk the Boks are giving Scotland anything other than their full, undivided attention. “We consider them one of the top nations in world rugby,” Etzebeth said. “We see them as an Ireland or New Zealand or Australia or England or any of those teams that we play against. They're right up there for us and it's going to be a physical Test match. I think Murrayfield is an incredible place to play rugby. Personally it's one of my favourites in the world, I love coming and playing here. The Scottish people are nice but we know their team will never be nice to us on the field.”
The Springboks have been nice and respectful of Scotland all week. Come 16:10 on Sunday in Edinburgh, you can bet that will all come to an abrupt end. The Scots know what is coming - the toughest, meanest challenge in all of rugby. Knowing about it and knowing what to do about it are two entirely different things. A Scottish victory is hard to see, but if they can somehow shake up the global order with a seismic win, it may just be the catalyst towards the type of success that has for so long been beyond their reach.
