Welcome to the most wide-open race to be the AFL’s No.1 draft pick since the Brisbane Lions made Cam Rayner the dux of the 2017 class seven years ago. Five players have a case to be the first name called out, although Richmond – who will make that decision – appear to be zeroing in on two, according to rival recruiters.

Here are our top 30 draft prospects for this year after discussions with recruiters or list bosses at 12 of the 18 clubs, as The best teenage footballers prepare to be tested and quizzed at the annual combine this weekend. These rankings are starting to factor in where clubs will pick (particularly in the top 10), which players are being linked to them, and how the draft is likely to change in the trade period, but is otherwise a talent order.

Sam Lalor: The Next Dustin Martin?

The next Dustin Martin could be on his way to Tigerland. Most recruiters who spoke to this masthead believe Richmond are weighing up Lalor or Finn O’Sullivan at No.1. Many non-Richmond talent scouts also rank Lalor that highly despite a serious hamstring injury ending his season amid a severely interrupted campaign. They are confident he will get on top of his physical issues in a full-time AFL environment, and with improved fitness. Lalor’s combination of power, physicality, kicking skills, game-changing ability and penchant for impacting the game as a midfielder and forward make him a closer projection to Martin than Christian Petracca.

Levi Ashcroft: Following in His Brother's Footsteps

Ashcroft will join his Norm Smith Medal-winning brother Will at Brisbane, and may even attract a bid at No.1. That owes to his strong body of work across the past two years, including being a back-to-back under-18 All-Australian. Richmond have interviewed Ashcroft since he announced he would be a father-son selection. He will need to bide his time to break into Brisbane’s on-ball rotation, but he is more than capable of being a contributor at half-forward initially. Ashcroft’s rare mix of high-level talent and ultra professionalism should enable him to make an instant impact in 2025. He won’t test at the combine because he is recovering from shoulder surgery.

Alix Tauru: From Unknown to Potential Top-Three Pick

What a rise for Tauru, from virtual unknown in the pre-season to potential top-three pick, if defender-needy North Melbourne take the leap, as some think they might. Recruiters are enamoured with the courage he shows flying for marks, his athleticism, aggression and instinctual play, and his upside. Tauru is most highly rated as an intercept defender, but also played up forward and as a defensive midfielder. There is risk involved in picking Tauru, with his most common draft range seen as 5-12, with several recruiters rating him as an ideal selection for clubs with multiple first-round picks. This would be the ultimate swing-for-the-fence selection.

Jagga Smith: A Bust-Proof Selection

Smith made every post a winner this past season and was our No.1 prospect two months ago. He remains the most bust-proof selection – some compare picking him to Sam Walsh in 2018 – and the team that drafts him will gain a gun midfielder for the next 15 years. He is a genius at winning the ball in contested situations and escaping from tight spots at stoppages, putting his agility to great use, then almost always finds a teammate. Smith had a 50-disposal game in the under-18 league, and won 31, with 18 contested possessions, in his VFL debut for Richmond. The general view is that he is, perhaps, not as talented or damaging as some in this range.

Harvey Langford: A Consistent Performer

Alongside Smith and Ashcroft, Langford was the most consistently excellent performer this year. He was seen more as a top-30 prospect before the championships, but has shot up draft boards by continually playing well. The co-Larke medallist is big by midfield standards, can play various positions, is a good mark, hits the scoreboard regularly, works hard off the ball, and physically handled the step-up to VFL in a cameo with the Tigers. Some recruiters would be prepared to take him at No.1. There are still queries on his speed and decision-making at times – particularly his kicking inside 50 – but there is no argument with his output.

Isaac Kako: A Dangerous Small Forward with Iraqi Heritage

Essendon may need to match a high opposition bid on their NGA prospect, with Melbourne strongly considering the dangerous small forward – or are they playing games with the Bombers? Either way, Kako, whose parents were born in Iraq, is considered a top-10 lock after a brilliant national under-18 championships. There should be no hesitation taking a sub-180cm goalsneak with Kako’s ability this high after Nick Watson’s impressive debut season. Kako is powerful, and has a knack for creating scoring opportunities and kicking audacious goals from seemingly hopeless situations. He can improve defensively, but can impact the game beyond the forward 50.

Finn O’Sullivan: A Series of Setbacks

In contention at No.1, but falling to No.7? This promises to be a wild draft, but it definitely feels uncomfortable ranking O’Sullivan here, after a potential Melbourne bid on Kako. He has long been on recruiters’ radars, winning best player honours at the 2022 under-16 championships and being an under-18 All-Australian last year. O’Sullivan has dealt with a series of setbacks this year that prevented him from playing at his best, but there are recruiters who rate him as the most talented player in the pool. O’Sullivan appears to have more time than most, is a strong runner, and adjusts quickly when his first option is shut down. His marking is a strength, and he is a goalkicker with few flaws.

Josh Smillie: A Cripps-Like Prospect

This selection will be in Richmond’s hands once they trade Dan Rioli to Gold Coast, and the Tigers are bullish on Smillie, who has been likened to Patrick Cripps, despite him not meeting expectations this year. There was No.1 hype about him early in the year, but a moderate championships display hurt his stock. Some recruiters believe Smillie’s best position is at half-back – querying his running ability and impact below his knees – whereas others view him as a big-bodied midfielder who can go forward. His performances this year may not match the Langfords and Smiths, but this is a pick for the future and what Smillie might become. He is tall, strong and has good skills, so there is potential here.

Leo Lombard: A Contested Beast

If St Kilda president Andrew Bassat’s criticism of the draft system was any gauge, the Saints might be the club to place a bid on Lombard. That is certainly the tip in recruiting ranks. Lombard, who shared the Larke Medal at the championships with Langford after an outstanding carnival, buzzes around stoppages and his power and ball-winning talents are sure to be a great addition to the Suns’ midfield. He is often compared to fellow Gold Coast academy product Jake Rogers, the No.14 pick last year. The knock on Lombard – who played in the Suns’ 2023 VFL premiership as a 16-year-old – is that he could be tidier with his disposals, but he is a contested beast.

Sid Draper: A Top Prospect with Work to Do

There are Draper admirers higher than this, including West Coast, so the dual under-18 All-Australian may be snapped up long before this. A shin stress injury put him on the back foot from the start this year, but his renowned work ethic helped him make it back in time to compete at the championships. Draper boasts good midfield craft and ball-winning ability, as well as the power to burst out of stoppages. He finished the season well at SANFL senior level, which was another tick for his top-10 candidacy. However, Draper’s kicking skills and decision-making are considered a tad below some of the best midfielders in this crop.

Harry Armstrong: The Best Key Forward

The consensus best key forward in the 2024 group, Armstrong might even be the third player to head to Richmond, if this is the pick the Tigers snare from Fremantle for Shai Bolton. Essendon great Matthew Lloyd, who coached Armstrong at Haileybury, is one of many people who believe the left-footed goalkicker has a bit of Jeremy Cameron about him. His five-goal performance against Vic Country in the championships finale, including a towering grab between two opponents in the dying stages, helped seal his status as a potential top-10 selection. Armstrong is another who recruiters raised mid-year as a possible No.1 pick contender, and has the speed and endurance to roam further afield.

Tobie Travaglia: A Versatile and Reliable Talent

There is a lot of love within recruiting ranks for Travaglia, whose competitiveness, versatility, reliability and running ability are set to make him a valuable addition, wherever he lands. In an even group, he could even be taken inside the top 10 – and some clubs rank him there. Travaglia projects initially as a defender, where he thrives in one-on-one contests, or wingman, but there is confidence he might be able to eventually develop into an inside midfielder. He earned All-Australian honours, made a VFL appearance for Carlton late in the year, and part of the excitement about him is how much he improved this past season. He has a connection to West Coast via Harley Reid and Tom Cole.

Xavier Lindsay: A High Football IQ

Another one with plenty of admirers, Lindsay’s high football IQ, calm temperament, strong work ethic and excellent skills make him a certain first-round selection. He’s routinely discussed as being on the top-10 bubble, and recruiters often point to his 30-disposal game in Country’s narrow loss to Metro as his statement performance in what is considered the “game of the year”. He can play inside and outside midfield roles, or even be used at half-back, where his silky left boot can do damage, even if he makes the odd wrong choice. A knee injury prematurely ended Lindsay’s season, but he has enough runs on the board to be an early selection.

Luke Trainor: A Key Defensive Prospect

Trainor unfortunately missed Sandringham’s grand final triumph with a concussion and did not finish the season as strongly as he started it, but he is one of this year’s best key defensive prospects. He has also proven he can kick goals and make his presence felt when playing in attack, too, which only adds to his value. Recruiters would have liked to see Trainor spend more time playing on an opponent – and there is a query on his ability to play deep in defence – but his intercepting prowess will translate wonderfully to the AFL. Another of Trainor’s strengths is his willingness to take the game on with his kicking.

Joe Berry: A Speedy and Agile Forward

Berry is going to make one club very happy. This pick will likely be in West Coast’s hands as part of the Tom Barrass trade to Hawthorn. The Bushie enjoyed an excellent under-18 championships and was a regular goalkicker in the Talent League and for Vic Country. Berry’s speed, endurance and agility not only make him ideal for a high half-forward role in the AFL, but many recruiters believe he could also graduate to, or spend time on, a wing. He uses his running ability to good effect, often working back into defence to offer his support. Berry’s sharp left-footed kicking skills round out an impressive package.

Taj Hotton: A High-Potential Prospect with an ACL Injury

One of the hard-luck stories of this year’s draft after an ACL rupture at training ended his season in May, Hotton’s form was so incredible in the early stages of the year that he was tracking to be a top-10 pick. There is less likelihood of that because of his knee injury and the heightened risk of a recurrence, but he is so promising that it would not be a shock if someone took the punt that early. The son of ex-Pie and Blue Trent, Hotton is athletically gifted, has a great leap, can play in the midfield or up forward, and his rate of improvement bodes well for the future. St Kilda drafted Hotton’s brother Olli two years ago.

Jobe Shanahan: A Versatile Tall Forward

Shanahan sits behind only Armstrong among tall forwards in the thoughts of most recruiters. He kicked 11 goals in a highly impressive three-game stretch for Essendon’s VFL team before returning to the Pioneers and putting six more through the big sticks. Shanahan is a good kick – including set shots – marks the Sherrin well, and his athleticism enables him to create separation and work up and down the ground. He has also shown that he can play as a defender, too, although that is now seen more as a bonus than where his future lies. As with many young key forwards, there is a question mark on Shanahan’s competitiveness.

Murphy Reid: A Smart and Skilled Midfielder/Forward

There is a chance that Reid’s football smarts, game awareness, skills and super-quick decision-making will convince a club to grab him earlier than this. However, most recruiters who spoke to this masthead rated him in this range of the draft because of his lack of height and leg speed. They believe he is more likely to make his AFL living mostly as a forward rather than a midfielder. Reid won a season-low eight disposals in the Talent League grand final, but was mostly stellar throughout the season, including winning Metro’s MVP award and earning All-Australian selection.

Bo Allan: A Powerful and Athletic Prospect

Allan was considered a likely top-10 pick but has slid down some clubs’ draft order while spending the second half of the season playing against senior competition. There are recruiters who still rank him inside the top 15, raving about his athleticism, power, speed and leadership. Allan has also proven he can perform a lockdown role. Of greatest consequence to his draft standing is what talent scouts project him to be at AFL level, which could dictate where he is drafted. Some believe WA’s top prospect can develop into a big-bodied midfielder, whereas others think he will remain mostly at half-back or as a third tall. There is also a query on his kicking.

Ollie Hannaford: A Late-Season Bolter

Tauru might be the draft’s biggest bolter, but Hannaford improved his draft stock as much as anyone in the final two months of the season. He did not earn a national combine call-up despite his stellar finish, but will still test at the Victorian equivalent. Hannaford’s mid-season switch to the forward line changed the trajectory of his career, with his competitiveness, strength, burst off the mark and goalkicking nous propelling him up draft boards. He kicked 21 goals – including bags of six and five – in his last nine games, as well as recording 16 forward-50 tackles in that period. Hannaford can also provide some impactful midfield minutes.

Sam Marshall: A High-Endurance Midfielder

A strong second half of the season, including winning the best-on-ground medal in the Dragons’ Talent League grand final win, means Marshall – who will join the Lions – may attract an earlier bid than first thought. His ceiling is in the teens, but most recruiters who spoke to this masthead believe he will land somewhere in the 20s. Marshall can run two kilometres in under six minutes and puts that rare endurance to great use in games, often doing his best work late when others are tiring. His numbers were better for the Allies than for Sandringham, who have a deep on-ball brigade. Marshall’s critics argue his ball use and decision-making need to improve.

Jack Whitlock: A Tall Forward with Potential

The first of the Whitlock twins started the year with 4.4 and seven marks against Tasmania, and produced enough of those types of games throughout the year to remain in the top-20 mix. Clubs covet key-position players at his height, and his athleticism enables him to kick goals in various ways, from set shots to grabbing the ball out of a forward-50 ruck stoppage and out-running key defenders. Whitlock also averaged almost two contested marks per game, playing as a forward-ruck, but there are question marks on his competitiveness.

Jonty Faull: A Physical and Powerful Forward

Faull is one of several key forwards in our top 30. There is not much between them, and they all offer something a bit different, with recruiters placing them in various orders behind Armstrong. Faull’s physicality, aerial prowess and smart bodywork are what he is known for, along with a powerful kick and knack for kicking goals. He is not as athletic or high leaping as others, but kicked three or more goals in six of his 11 Talent League matches this year after a back injury delayed his season start.

Alex Dodson: The Top Ruckman in the Draft

Dodson is the top ruckman in this year’s draft pool, ahead of GWS academy big man Logan Smith. He represented Australia in basketball at under-18 level and turned down the chance to play for the Adelaide 36ers in the NBL to instead pursue an AFL career. Some recruiters are reluctant to use a top-30 pick on a ruckman, but Dodson has enough interest to find a home in this range. He has plenty to learn, given his limited football exposure, including skipping the 2023 season, but he is athletic, mobile and wins plenty of the ball. He was an All-Australian this year.

Jesse Dattoli: A Powerful Midfielder/Forward

This is the bottom of Dattoli’s draft range, with some recruiters believing he could be selected in the late teens, so impressed were they with his strong finish to the season. It will be a matter of team needs for these clubs. If they want a small over a tall, Dattoli will leapfrog the others. He will bounce between the midfield and forward line at AFL level, just as he did in juniors, with his improved engine, toughness and power making him a force at stoppages. Dattoli’s marking, particularly for someone of his height, helps round out his package in attack, where his accurate set-shot kicking ensures he capitalises on most of his chances.

Matt Whitlock: A Versatile Tall Player

Unlike his identical twin Jack, Whitlock has demonstrated he can play equally well at both ends of the ground. He started the year in defence, where he put his height to great use as an interceptor, before swinging forward and producing eight multiple-goal performances. Can improve his kicking, including set shots, and decision-making, but works up the ground to present for teammates, generates a high number of scoring shots, and like Jack, is still dangerous when the ball hits the ground.

Cooper Hynes: A Powerful and Aggressive Player

Hynes makes his debut in our rankings after an eye-catching season where his powerful and aggressive playing style drew comparisons with ex-North Melbourne captain Jack Ziebell and current Roo Cam Zurhaar. West Coast and Melbourne are two of his biggest fans, but there are other clubs that would not consider him in this draft range. Hynes’ endurance will need to improve if he is to play any meaningful midfield minutes in the AFL, but his forward craft and clearance work are rated highly. He and Langford provided a strong one-two punch for the Stingrays.

Tom Gross: A Dual-Position Impact Player

Gross has fans who place him higher than this, but similarly to Hynes, there are others who rate him outside the top 40. He’s constantly on the move at stoppages and makes quick decisions when he wins the Sherrin, often releasing a teammate with a slick handball. Gross also looks natural as a forward, where his underrated overhead marking and smart leading patterns come to the fore. He is not as silky as some of his midfield peers, but his dual-position impact, toughness and acceleration should make him a solid player at the next level.

Harrison Oliver: The Best Small Defender

A club may jump earlier than this if they want a small defender because Oliver is the best of that type in this draft, illustrated with his All-Australian selection. The left-footer offers a good blend of defence and attack, rarely wastes a possession, and diligently fills his role. Oliver gets into good positions to intercept, is tough and clean at ground level, does not panic under pressure, and his coach Rob Harding referred to him during the season as the heartbeat of the team. His AFL club is unlikely to be disappointed.

Christian Moraes: A High-Talent Prospect with Potential

Could Moraes be the Ashton Moir of this year’s draft? He was once considered a top-10 selection and there are recruiters still enamoured with his level of talent, but the season did not pan out as he might have hoped. The club willing to punt on Moraes’ upside could be richly rewarded, with his role at AFL level likely to be as a winger and high half-forward. He does his best work when the Sherrin is in his hands, and he is considered the top runner in this class. He holds off the likes of Noah Mraz, Thomas Sims and Hamish Davis to be in this slot.

The Draft's Biggest Bolters: A Surprise Package

The AFL draft is always full of surprises. Some players rise to the occasion, while others struggle to meet expectations. This year's draft is no different. We've seen some late-season bolters emerge as potential top-10 picks. Others have slid down the draft order after underwhelming performances. With so much talent on display, it's sure to be a fascinating and unpredictable night for recruiters and fans alike. The 2024 draft is going to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. Who will be the first name called out? Which clubs will snag the best talent? Only time will tell. Stay tuned for updates and analysis from our experts as the draft unfolds!