The Australian government is bracing for foreign policy turbulence with Donald Trump’s likely election as US president throwing the defence of Ukraine, Taiwan and combatting the climate crisis into doubt.
Although Kamala Harris is yet to concede defeat in the election, several networks have called the key swing state of Pennsylvania for Trump, and world leaders have moved to acknowledge their new counterpart. The Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, released a statement on Wednesday evening local time to congratulate him “on his election victory”.
“Our Government will work closely with the new Trump Administration to realise the benefits of our strong economic partnership,” Albanese said, highlighting the “common values” of the alliance, and the US’s role in the Indo-Pacific region.
“I look forward to talking with President Trump and working with him in the best interests of both our nations.”
Australia’s opposition leader, Peter Dutton, shared his congratulations on behalf of the federal Coalition. He praised the US – “an overwhelming force for good in the world” – as well as the Aukus military pact, centred on acquisition of nuclear submarines from the US.
“May the years ahead be some of the most defining for our Alliance in which … we unleash the defence, industrial and economic opportunities of AUKUS at speed and scale,” Dutton said.
The former prime minister Tony Abbott said that Trump had the self-belief “the West needs … in spades”:
Despite Trump’s refusal to commit to defence of Ukraine against Russia’s illegal invasion, Scott Morrison claimed on Wednesday that Trump would be a positive force for global security.
“Donald Trump, who is like unlike any other politician you will ever come across … I think what he brings now is an assertiveness and a strength to the role, which I think will have a very positive impact on global security issues,” Morrison told ABC News.
“That means getting in a position of strength and then getting the right outcome; the idea of just fighting to fight tomorrow with no real intent or resource to fight to win – that isn’t a good outcome for global peace and a good resolution in Ukraine, either.
“I think that is a recipe for calamity. I think president Trump will bring a fresh take on that. And frankly, we need a few fresh takes on some of these challenges, whether it’s there, or in the Middle East.”
Standing in stark contrast was the Greens leader, Adam Bandt, whose statement called the emerging result “a bad day for America, a bad day for Australia, and a bad day for the world”.
“As President, Trump will embolden hate,” Bandt said on Wednesday night local time, calling on Albanese to “urgently cancel AUKUS and reconsider Australia’s relationship with the United States”.
“Australia should be able to make its own decisions including about defence and foreign policy, and not be dictated to by Trump. We cannot be tied to such a dangerous demagogue.”
The Albanese government is already facing calls from the Labor Against War group to withdraw Australia from Aukus.
Labor Against War convener, Marcus Strom, said: “It is completely untenable for Australia to continue in lock-step with a militarised US government led by an unstable president.”
“Being part of a heavily integrated military alliance with a Trump presidency is dangerous, expensive and counter to the interests of the Australian people,” Strom said.
The deputy Australian prime minister and defence minister, Richard Marles, said on Tuesday said that Aukus was secure, no matter who won this week’s US presidential election.
Strom labelled this “an admission from our government that Aukus is mad, bad and dangerous enough that even Donald Trump supports it”.
Morrison said he was “very positive” about the future of Aukus under Trump, saying he “never understood why people would doubt” that Trump would support it.
“It’s a good deal. He was very committed to the alliance”, Morrison said.
“I mean, the point of Aukus is to resist that aggression coming out of China … and if you have that strong deterrent, then you don’t have to use it and but you have to be determined and clear about your willingness to put this in place.”
Also of concern to the Albanese Labor government is likely to be Trump’s environmental policies setting back cooperation on combating global heating.
Australia’s climate change minister, Chris Bowen, noted earlier in November that the Albanese government and the Biden administration have been “closely aligned in policy and personal terms” and “obviously, having a United States administration with a very forward leaning climate policy is a good thing”.
In an interview with Guardian Australia, Bowen suggested a second Trump administration would be unlikely to live up to the former president’s anti-climate rhetoric on the climate crisis.
Mr Abbott – who is considered a potential replacement, among Liberal candidates, for Australia’s current ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, if there is a change of government in Australia – praised Trump’s last stint in the Oval Office.
Many leaders — including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese — were focused on what it would mean for foreign affairs and global security. Some highlighted how the first Trump administration had taken a hard line on China during the 2018-2019 trade war.
Mr Trump previously proposed crippling tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60 per cent if re-elected and ending the country’s most-favoured nation trading status.
Mr Albanese vowed to work closely with Mr Trump and emphasised the United States’ leadership role in stability and security. He said Australia and America were “old allies” and “true friends”.
“Our Government will work closely with the new Trump Administration to realise the benefits of our strong economic partnership,” the PM said.
“The United States has long played a leadership role in the stability and security of the Indo-Pacific. Australia will strive to strengthen the co-operation between our two nations in the region.
“I look forward to talking with President Trump and working with him in the best interests of both our nations.”
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton declared the years ahead under a Trump administration should be some of the “most defining”, as concerns about the Republican’s commitment to the AUKUS pact and what it means for Australia’s plan to acquire nuclear submarines were played down.
“The United States has been an overwhelming force for good in the world,” Mr Dutton said.
“When our close ally is strong and at its best, the world is at its best.
“May the years ahead be some of the most defining for our Alliance . . . in which we unleash the defence, industrial and economic opportunities of AUKUS at speed and scale.”
Former prime minister Scott Morrison said the next United States president would have a “very positive impact” on global security issues and called it an “extraordinary victory”.
Speaking specifically about AUKUS, Mr Morrison said he believed Mr Trump would honour that partnership because it was a “good deal”.
“I’m very positive about it. I’ve never understood why people would doubt that he wouldn’t support it. It’s a good deal,” Mr Morrison told ABC.
“He was very committed to the alliance when we were in government.”
On more global security issues, Mr Morrison said Mr Trump would also bring a “fresh take” on the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict.
“Frankly, we need a few fresh takes on some of those challenges,” Mr Morrison said.
He said the first Trump administration had taken the lead in combating the “issue of China”, which the AUKUS partnership had been borne from.
Speaking ahead of the election result, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the country would continue to work with the US on the basis of mutual respect.
“Our policy towards the US is consistent,” Ms Ning told a press conference in Beijing.
“We will continue to view and handle China-US relations in accordance with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation” .
Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy told Senate estimates on Wednesday his department had modelled the “significant” impacts of Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs and trade policies on the Australian economy.
He said the increase in tariffs would have implications for the US economy and for China, which he noted was Australia’s largest trading partner.
“The imposition of trade restrictions, such as tariffs, typically lead to lower growth and higher inflation,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Mr Trump’s historic return to the White House “offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”
Another former Liberal prime minister congratulated Mr Trump on his return to the leadership of the “free world”.
“Self belief is what the West needs right now and Trump has that in spades,” Tony Abbott said.
But WA Senator Fatima Payman, who resigned from the Labor party in July, urged Trump to “please cancel the AUKUS agreement” as Greens leader Adam Bandt declared the result a “pretty terrifying” outcome.
“We cannot be tied to such a dangerous demagogue,” he said.
The UK is the third member of the tri-lateral AUKUS partnership. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer added his congratulations to President-elect Trump.
“I look forward to working with you in the years ahead,” he said.
“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.”
UK Reform Party Leader Nigel Farage gave a thumbs up to cameras from his position at a Trump HQ party in West Palm Beach.
On X, he called it “the most incredible political comeback of our lifetime.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban Viktor called it “a much needed victory for the World!”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent his “heartiest” congratulations to “my friend”.
“As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration,” he said.
Earlier, Mr Albanese paid tribute to “my friend Joe Biden”, saying they had worked together to make the alliance “stronger than it has ever been”.
Trump’s stunning election landslide: ‘This will truly be the golden age of America’.
Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison is dismissing concerns Australia should be concerned regarding a Trump presidency as a win for the twice-impeached former President looks extremely likely.
Mr Morrison notes the biggest cause for concern – AUKUS – was in the works during Trump’s first presidency and says it’s unlikely he’ll walk away from the treaty.
Mr Morris said the Republican candidate had given a 'stellar' performance during the election campaign.
All but declaring the win for the former businessman, Mr Morrison said Mr Trump had 'won this election,' and believed a result would be called by Wednesday night Australian time.
Mr Morrison, who left politics to join a US-based security and defence think tank, dashed claims Mr Trump was a 'scary' character, following unearthed 2017 footage of Anthony Albanese who said the leader 'scares the sh*t out of me'.
'Vladimir Putin is scary. Xi Jinping is scary. Ayatollah Khomeini is scary. Donald Trump is not scary,' Mr Morrison told Sky News on Wednesday.
'I think the three places that will be most unhappy with this result tonight will be in Tehran, will be in Beijing and will be in Moscow.'
Mr Morrison's prime ministership coincided with Mr Trump's first presidency between 2018 to 2021, with Mr Morrison sharing effusive praise for the leader.
'The US is an entrepreneurial animal ... and I think we'll see great confidence come into that economy,' he said.
Mr Morrison also backed former Labor PM Kevin Rudd to continue in his role as Australia's ambassador to the US, and said Mr Rudd had been 'building those relationships across the aisle'.
Touching on international matters, Mr Morrison also said he was 'confident' he would pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Morrison said Mr Trump 'won't want to negotiate or enter into an arrangement from a position of weakness,' and expected to see the 'issue resolved'.
'If Vladimir Putin thinks he's going to get an easy ride out of Donald Trump, he's got another thing coming,' said Mr Morrison.
'He will know very quickly that any arrangement that he ends up agreeing to isn't the one that he has in mind right now and one that he believes he will achieve by pressing on with this murderous war.'
Earlier on Wednesday, United States' ambassador Caroline Kennedy said relations between Australia and the US would continue to deepen regardless of who was president, calling Australia 'the most trusted capable ally'.
'One of the things that I say every single day here in Australia is how strong its alliance is and how unshakeable and how much stronger it's growing everyday,' she told the ABC.
'I have seen that first-hand since I have been here.
'So no matter who wins the election, the fundamentals are there and only getting stronger.'
She pointed to the trilateral AUKUS security pact between Australia, the US and the United Kingdom, as well as two-way trade and Australia's role in supplying critical minerals to the US.
'So there's just so many things to bring us together,' Ms Kennedy said.
'That's not going to change.'
Meanwhile, questions have been looming about Australian Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd in the event of a second Trump presidency.
The former Labor prime minister has called Mr Trump 'nuts', the 'most destructive president in history' and a 'traitor to the West'.
Mr Trump has called Mr Rudd 'nasty' and 'not the brightest bulb'.
'If he's at all hostile, he will not be there long,' the former president said in an interview earlier this year.
The verbal barbs have prompted the opposition to question if Mr Rudd would be able to serve Australia effectively if the Republicans won.
Election eve polling put Mr Trump and Ms Harris neck and neck ahead of the vote on Tuesday (local time).
Candidate need to secure 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
